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With the coronavirus situation moving very fast in Wales, people want to know where the virus is currently in progress.
Torfaen, Vale of Glamorgan and Neath Port Talbot will be closed at 6pm on Monday and there are concerns that other parts of the country will not be left behind.
The Technical Advisory Cell, which advises ministers, says it warns that closures should be made when the number of cases in an area in a week exceeds 50 per 100,000 people.
Rhondda Cynon Taf, Newport, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Merthyr, Cardiff, Llanelli, Swansea and Blaenau Gwent have already been forced to remain locked in the area.
WalesOnline has compared the figures published on Sunday, September 27, with seven days earlier (Sunday, September 20).
These figures are seven-day rolling totals for new cases adjusted for population (per 100,000 population). It is important to remember that although these figures are a useful guide, they are only part of the story. If testing massively increases in one location, there is likely an increase in confirmed cases.
However, these figures remain a vital factor in the decision-making of the Government of Wales and the Public Health of Wales.
Speaking to the Senedd Health Committee last week, Fliss Bennee, co-chair of TAC, outlined the levels an area would have to reach before closure is ordered.
These were:
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Between 15 and 20 cases per 100,000 would include a local authority or a health board on the “watch list.”
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Amber level: 25 to 50 cases per 100,000 would mean considering and weighing the restrictions.
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Red level: more than 50 cases per 100,000 would mean applying restrictions immediately.
Here are the current areas with the rapidly increasing rates of Covid-19:
1. Pembrokeshire
The number of cases in the last seven days per 100,000 inhabitants in Pembrokeshire has increased by 694% since last Sunday from 1.6 to 12.7.
That is the biggest increase in Wales. But it’s really important to note that the county still has relatively low rates of the virus. Only Ceredigion, Monmouthshire and Gwynedd have fewer.
Because you started with such a low number of cases per day, even a small increase in cases can mean a large percentage increase.
2. Blaenau Gwent
Blaenau Gwent was blocked last Monday along with Merthyr, Bridgend and Newport.
It currently has 287.7 cases per 100,000. By context, tourists from countries with more than 20 cases per 100,000 must isolate themselves when returning.
It’s too early to tell whether the local lockdown will make a difference in the county, which has seen a 571% increase since last Sunday, when the seven-day infection rate was just 32.9.
3. Swansea
As of 6pm Sunday, the Swansea local authority area has been locally blocked.
Cases were just 17.4 per 100,000 last weekend, but they had risen to 93.1 cases in the last week per 100,000 people on Sunday, September 27.
This is an increase of 435%.
4. Torfaen
Torfaen County will go into lockdown starting at 6pm today along with Neath Port Talbot and the Vale of Glamorgan. Sunday’s announcement, as well as confusing many London-based news readers who were suddenly required to speak his name, was not surprising given how quickly the virus is spreading.
From 9.6 cases per 100,000 last week to 47.9 on Sunday the 27th, this is an increase of 399%.
5. Ceredigion
Like Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion is on this list because it started with such a low number of cases.
It remains the place in Wales with the lowest rate of the virus.
However, the increase from a population-adjusted weekly total of 1.4 cases to 6.9 cases is a 392% increase and is significant.
This table shows the growth rates across all local authorities, and the good news for Caerphilly is that it seems possible to reverse the trend as the virus is falling faster there than anywhere else in Wales.
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