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Labor has posted its first lead in the polls since Boris Johnson became prime minister, marking an extraordinary change in the fortunes of the two main parties.
Keir Starmer’s party now has a three-point lead over the Conservatives, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer. In a result that will cause more discomfort among Tory MPs over the performance of the prime minister, the poll ranked Labor with 42% support and Tories with 39%.
It’s the first Labor advantage since early July 2019, the end of Theresa May’s doomed term, when the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit party conducted heavy polls. Labor then posted a two-point lead.
This represents a quick reversal. The Conservatives posted a 26-point lead just six months ago, in the early stages of the Covid-19 lockdown. Approval of the government’s handling of the coronavirus stood at two-thirds (65%) of the public. The latest poll shows that only 30% approve.
Starmer now leads Johnson by four points on who would be the best prime minister. More than half of voters (55%) believe that he is ready to be prime minister, and 40% believe that Labor is ready to form the next government.
The underlying poll results suggest that government failures have contributed to the Labor leadership. Starmer’s approval ratings are very similar to those recorded in an Opinium poll a fortnight ago, but Johnson’s approval ratings have since fallen from -6% to -12%, their lowest level since the pandemic began. .
Half of the voters (50%) disapprove of how the government has handled the crisis and 57% disapprove of how it has handled the tests. The public supports the tough new policies announced last week, although 60% believe more measures will be needed to stop a second wave.
The Lib Dem party has not recovered from the announcement of the new leader Ed Davey: it is at 5%, one point less than a fortnight ago.
Adam Drummond, Associate Director of Opinium, said: “The Labor Party has finally caught up with its leader in the polls. While this is the first time since Boris Johnson became Prime Minister that the Labor Party has been ahead of the Conservatives in vote share, Keir Starmer has had better approval ratings (both gross and net) than Prime Minister for some time and the two leaders have tended to base themselves on the question of who would be the best prime minister. Now, the Labor leader has made progress on that measure as well.
“While there is strong public support for the new Covid restrictions announced by the government earlier this week, they have yet to lead to the kind of boost to the government approval rating that the initial lockdown measures brought in March, which which suggests that the ‘rally around the effect of the flag was unique’.
He said the result gave “some credence to those who argue that the perceptions of party leaders are a leading indicator, and that where approval ratings go, the percentage of votes follows.” He added: “While Labor passed most of the 2010-15 parliament with an advantage over the Tories, Ed Miliband generally trailed David Cameron in approval ratings and preferred prime minister. This suggests that Labor’s share of the vote under Starmer is a bit more robust, which is why the other really interesting set of numbers to watch out for over the next several months will be [chancellor] From Rishi Sunak “.
