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Brussels has tried to pierce a burst of optimism about an impending Brexit deal, amid fears that Boris Johnson has failed to secure the backing of key advisers and his party for the necessary compromises in the final stretch of the negotiations.
With the UK government yet to offer a way forward on the most contentious issues, and confidence in Downing Street at a low ebb, senior EU officials treated with skepticism report that the UK could see a way to ensure an agreement.
EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier told the ministers of the 27 member states this week that there was “a more open atmosphere at the negotiating table,” according to diplomatic sources in Brussels. But he had also stressed that “substantial differences of opinion persist, especially other things being equal”: the issue of state aid to companies.
While Downing Street is willing to enter into intensive “tunnel” negotiations to allow both sides to get creative before emerging at the October 15 leaders’ summit with a solution to the most intransigent problems, Brussels is not convinced that the Prime Minister still have the support of his colleagues to commit to whatever may arise.
“We cannot trust the word of this prime minister, so the EU member states are not yet willing to blindly go into a tunnel negotiation and see what happens,” said a source. “It will take more than David Frost [the UK’s chief negotiator] telling us that Johnson wants a deal. “
When the next round of negotiations opens next week, the EU expects Frost to present a compromise proposal on the key issue of controlling state aid to companies. “There is better ambient music, but there is still no substance from London to justify it,” said a diplomatic source.
The UK has insisted that it will not go beyond the World Trade Organization provisions on state aid, which would allow either party to take countermeasures when trade has been unfairly distorted, a position the EU does not believe it offers. sufficient guarantees of fair competition.
Barnier had told EU affairs ministers this week that “recent events force us to be more attentive to enforcement and dispute resolution” in the trade and security agreement, according to a senior diplomat.
European Council President Charles Michel tweeted on Friday: “From now on, we will better apply a level playing field, in a market open to those who respect its standards. Either they leave our union or want to get closer to it. “
EU leaders will meet at the end of next week to discuss foreign policy issues and receive briefing from Barnier. But the sources downplayed any suggestion that the heads of state and government would make a decisive intervention.
On Friday, EU officials were unsure how to read an article by the Spectator’s political editor, James Forsyth, who said Downing Street could see that “a deal is in the offing” and extolled the benefits for the post Johnson Minister.
A UK government official rejected the hope of an imminent breakthrough, saying “much work remains to be done and either outcome is possible” and cautioned that the EU had to be “realistic” in the coming days.
The official said that “differences in fisheries and level playing field remain significant … if the gaps in these areas are to be bridged, the more constructive attitude of the EU will need to be translated into more realistic political positions in the coming days. “.
“Is it about them preparing the way for a deal, or blaming the EU for their lack of flexibility?” Asked an EU official. “There have been no great advances in the last informal talks. There may be a breakthrough, but there is nothing yet. “
EU officials have suggested that, however, an agreement would be reached on the even more difficult issue of access for European fishing fleets to UK waters if an agreement on state aid could be reached before the leaders’ summit on October 15.
The Internal Market Bill aims to enforce compatible rules and regulations regarding trade in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Some rules, for example around food safety or air quality, which were previously established by EU agreements, will now be controlled by decentralized administrations or Westminster. The domestic market bill insists that decentralized administrations must accept goods and services from all UK nations, even if their standards differ locally.
This, the government says, is in part to ensure that international traders have access to the UK as a whole, relying on standards and rules to be consistent.
The Scottish government has criticized it as a Westminster “takeover”, and the Welsh government has expressed fear that it will lead to a race to the bottom. If one of the countries that make up the United Kingdom lowers its standards, for example on the importation of chlorinated chicken, the other three nations will have to accept chlorinated chicken as well.
It has become even more controversial because one of its main goals is to empower ministers to pass regulations even if they are contrary to the withdrawal agreement reached with the EU under the Northern Ireland protocol.
The text does not disguise its intention, stating that the powers contained in the bill “have effect without prejudice to any relevant international or national law with which they may be incompatible or incompatible.”
The bill passed its first hurdle in parliament by 77 votes, despite rebellion from some Conservative MPs.
Martin Belam Y Owen bowcott
One of the key indicators of the progress of the talks will be the future programming of the internal market law and the promised financing law, which has yet to be presented.
The government intends to publish plans for the progress of the domestic market bill, which threatens to overturn parts of the Brexit withdrawal agreement, through parliament by the end of next week. If progress on the bill slows down, it will be seen as a “temporary removal of the gun from the table,” as the EU has threatened legal action if it is not withdrawn by the end of next week, a source suggested.
It is understood that “good progress” was being made in relation to controls in the Irish Sea before the Internal Market Bill diverted talks. If a meeting between Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove and his EU counterpart on Monday is successful, the UK could use it as an opportunity to claim “victory” over the EU and discuss offensive market elements. inside. account.
But the UK keeps an additional card in reserve in the form of a finance bill, which one source said “could look worse than the domestic market bill” in terms of the Northern Ireland protocol of the withdrawal agreement and potentially destabilize trade and security negotiations. . “Whether that is released soon or not, it will fuel the escalation or de-escalation of the talks,” the source said.
