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The rate at which the Covid-19 virus is spreading appears to be accelerating.
The R number, which indicates how fast the coronavirus epidemic is growing, has risen from 1.1-1.4 to 1.2-1.5.
A survey by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimated that there were 9,600 new cases per day in England in the week to September 19, up from 6,000 the week before and three times more than those detected by general tests.
It comes as more restrictions come into force in parts of England and Wales.
On Friday, the daily number of positive cases in the UK detected by coronavirus tests rose to a new high of 6,874, government figures show.
34 more deaths were announced, although figures for Scotland were not available due to a power outage in the Scottish National Registers.
Infection rates are highest in North West England and London.
As infection rates increase, new restrictions are being implemented in the following areas:
- Cardiff and Swansea County will close at 18:00 BST on Sunday, 24 hours after the town of Llanelli in Carmarthenshire.
- In Leeds, Stockport, Wigan and Blackpool, different households will be banned from meeting in private homes or gardens from midnight on Friday.
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London will be added to the government’s Covid-19 watch list, which means that districts will be classified as “areas of concern” but will not have additional restrictions yet.
An R or a breeding number above one means that the epidemic is growing. It is a measure of how many additional people each case of coronavirus is infecting,
In March, before control measures were implemented, R was thought to be just under three.
ONS estimates of how much of the population is currently infected are based on testing a representative sample of people with or without symptoms.
It is different from the number published daily by the Department of Health and Social Assistance. That records positive cases in people with possible Covid symptoms requesting tests.
And in the week to September 19, DHSC data showed roughly 3,000 positive tests a day in England, a total of 23,378.
In contrast, the ONS survey suggests that there were actually 103,600 people in England with the virus, which is equivalent to roughly one in 500 people in private households.
The number does not include cases in hospitals and residences.
‘Clear evidence’ of increase
The ONS said there was “clear evidence” of an increase in the number of people testing positive for Covid-19 in all age groups, but the rates are currently higher in those aged 17-24.
Infection rates are highest in the north of England and London, with minor increases seen in the Midlands.
In Wales, the cases appear to have increased dramatically, but because there are fewer people in the sample, there is a lot of uncertainty around the precise figure.
But central estimates suggest they could have risen nearly sevenfold, from 1,500 people in total who had Covid the previous week to more than 10,000.
The ONS has also started surveying people in Northern Ireland, where early figures suggest that one in 300 people had the virus between September 6 and 19.
These numbers only take us to the end of last week and as such may be an understatement of the current situation.
Cases have risen in recent weeks and have started to translate into an increase in hospital admissions.
Data from the Covid Symptom Study app, run by King’s College London and technology company ZOE, puts the daily figure for England at 12,883, higher than the ONS.
Its figures are based on the people who download and use the app, so it is not a random sample, but it does include a greater number of positive tests.
ZOE’s figures are also more up-to-date than ONS’s and therefore may be capturing more recent increases.
