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The United Nations is celebrating its 75th anniversary, as the post-World War II global order that created it has shaky foundations.
Multilateralism is in serious disarray, as former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon has observed.
President Donald Trump’s America First foreign policy has seen the United States circumvent multilateral agreements from the Paris climate deal to the Iran nuclear deal, while China is visibly positioning itself as the new supporter of the United Nations.
But China’s growing influence comes at a price, and if Beijing is spending more money to fund UN agencies like the World Health Organization, then it will want more voice as a result.
The UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, spoke of a fundamental moment facing the UN: those who built the United Nations knew the value of unity, he said, having lived through the war and a previous pandemic.
Anxiety about what the rivalry between the United States and China means for global stability abounded at this remote gathering of world leaders.
The urgency of French President Emmanuel Macron’s tone could not be hidden, as he said in his prerecorded comments that today’s world cannot be left to the rivalry between China and the United States.
That rivalry, which has seen the two countries go head-to-head with everything from trade to technology, is turning increasingly bitter, and President Trump flagged the rhetoric, using his platform on the world stage to criticize what he called the China virus.
- Why have relations between the United States and China reached a minimum?
- Has Trump kept his promises?
With less than 40 days to go until the US election, the attacks on Beijing are central to the Trump campaign. It appears that a concerted effort is being made to deflect criticism of the president’s handling of the outbreak by criticizing China for exporting the virus.
Would a bipolar world in which the United States and China compete for supremacy eventually lead to a military conflict? Clearly, the UN Secretary General is concerned about what lies ahead, warning of another “Cold War”.
“We are moving in a very dangerous direction,” Guterres said. “Our world cannot afford a future in which the two largest economies divide the world into a Great Fracture, each with its own business and financial rules and artificial intelligence and Internet capabilities. A technological and economic divide runs the risk of inevitably become a geostrategic and military divide. We must avoid this at all costs. “
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This open discussion about the consequences of a “great rift” shows how quickly the world is changing and how diplomats are struggling to keep up.
Chinese President Xi Jinping declared in the virtual general debate that “China has no intention of waging a Hot or Cold War with any country.”
That statement was revealing. The presidency of Donald Trump has increased tensions with China, to the point where speculation abounds about where this is all leading.
A seasoned diplomat told me on Tuesday that the general debate at the UN was always seen as creative chaos.
As world leaders met and met in private, real diplomacy was done. Now, it’s just chaos, said this veteran sadly, rhetorically asking who is in charge and which world leader has more than narrow self-interest at heart.
The pandemic has taken advantage of the injustices of the world, observed the UN secretary general. People are suffering, our planet is burning, he said, imploring world leaders to view Covid-19 as a wake-up call and dress rehearsal for the challenges ahead.
Yet an hour after Guterres said that solidarity is a self-interest, President Trump declared that all world leaders must follow his example and put their countries first.
If he is reelected, his unilateralism will become more pronounced and the United Nations will likely be further marginalized by Washington.
Would America’s commitment to NATO also weaken? If Joe Biden were elected president, the tension between Washington and Beijing could ease, but the fundamental rivalry between the United States and China would remain.
The world is readjusting and the question now is how the old multilateral order adapts and who will run it.
