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Launching, laying the groundwork, delivering hard truths: The government’s top scientific advisers were dispatched today with one intention.
They wanted to convince us all that the imminent setbacks of our freedom are, although unwanted, necessary and we must all do our part.
Using seven data slides, a 20-minute presentation, and no questions asked from journalists, the government’s chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, and chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, were not there to debate what action might be necessary. , but to defend what is necessary. come.
Professor Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance were sent to deliver a stern warning to the nation.
His message: do nothing and the number of COVID-19 cases could hit 49,000 a day in mid-October, with 200 deaths a day in mid-November.
Sir Patrick said that “speed” and “action” were required to reduce the numbers.
“There’s a chance this is moving really fast,” he said.
Meanwhile, Professor Whitty warned: “We have, in a bad way, literally turned a corner.”
The scientific case is quickly followed by political maneuvering, as the prime minister weighs not only what measures to implement, but how to bring a weary public, the restless party, and the four nations with him.
Boris johnson We had direct talks with the leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland on Monday in the hope that all parts of the UK could follow the same course as we try to navigate the ‘inevitable’ second wave of this disease.
Nicola sturgeonScotland’s prime minister has already said that she will announce further emergency measures in the next two days, but is willing to delay her own decisions on what exactly would be required before her talks with the prime minister.
Northern Ireland leader Arlene Foster was not prepared to wait as long as she domestic mixing prohibited since Tuesday night.
And the mood of the public?
The lockdown fatigue that scientists warned about in the spring now seems to be showing up at the very moment that ministers and experts are asking all of us to play by the rules.
The government’s Scientific and Advisory Group (SAGE) reported last week that only one in five symptoms they reported in England was fully isolated at home for the required two weeks at the end of August.
The government is trying to respond with tougher penalties, but it knows that it actually needs people to voluntarily join in and comply, as they did in the spring at the height of the lockdown.
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But as this progresses, that sense of collective effort is affected by different groups in society who have different priorities and face different pressures.
Professor Whitty tried to argue that controlling the virus “is not someone else’s problem, this is our whole problem.”
He reminded younger people who may not be as affected by COVID that the virus can work its way up the chain to older and more vulnerable people if left unchecked.
But there are many in Johnson’s own party who are skeptical, pointing out that there is no established scientific view on how to handle the virus.
They quote Carl Heneghan, a professor at the University of Oxford, who told Sky News that a strict national lockdown now could be ineffective and result in a resurgence later in the winter.
His point of view is any partial blockage – the so-called “circuit break” – should be delayed until christmas.
Parliamentarians also point out Sweden, which was never completely blocked and is now experiencing a decline in cases rather than a resurgence of the virus.
Uncomfortable with the policies, they are increasingly furious at the heavy hand of Number 10 and are beginning to mobilize against the prime minister.
Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the powerful 1922 select committee in support, is leading the rebellion against what he and many colleagues see as “too much executive power.”
It requires adequate parliamentary oversight when it comes to new restrictions and is preparing to table an amendment to that effect when the coronavirus The emergency powers laws are renewed on September 30.
“These are real burdens on people across the country and I think people have a right to expect that parliament will look at these things and really put ministers on the doorbell to explain why they think they are necessary and what they want to achieve with it. “” Sir Graham told me in an interview on Monday.
“[Mr Johnson’s] The rule of six was introduced without any criteria being established as to how it would be judged to have succeeded or failed and when it would end.
“I very much hope that the government will accept the amendment or something like that.
“We recognize that it is time to move towards more formal democratic processes. Representatives of the British people should be involved in the decision-making process, it cannot be done simply through sleight of hand.”
With the intervention comes a warning.
Cases could reach 49,000 a day by mid-October with no action
MPs hope not only to debate any new big changes to the blocking rules, but also to vote on them. Johnson could face a major rebellion led by some of the biggest beasts in the banks if he doesn’t heed the warning.
The first blockade was simple and the party and the public supported the prime minister, but these are very different times and he must make very difficult judgments on how to deal with a second wave of COVID.
It will weigh the public health risk of a fall resurgence against the economy and the political consequences that could come from an even partial shutdown of the economy.
On Tuesday, the cabinet, leaders across the UK, parliament and the public will discover exactly what the prime minister intends to do.
But it is no longer enough to raise it: his plan will only work if he gets us all to follow it and the reaction is forming on the part of a tired public and restless deputies.
