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Reuters
The UK could see 50,000 new coronavirus cases a day by mid-October without further restrictions, the government’s top scientific adviser warned.
Sir Patrick Vallance said it “would be expected to cause about 200 deaths per day” a month after that.
The briefing in Downing St comes as Prime Minister Boris Johnson considers whether to introduce more measures in England.
On Sunday, another 3,899 daily cases and 18 deaths were reported in the UK.
Speaking alongside the government’s top medical adviser, Professor Chris Whitty, Sir Patrick said: “Right now we believe the epidemic is doubling roughly every seven days.
“Yes, and that’s a big yes, but if that continues unabated and this doubles every seven days … if that continues, it would end up with something like 50,000 cases in mid-October a day.
“50,000 cases per day are expected to lead a month later, say mid-November, to over 200 deaths per day.
“So the challenge is to make sure that the doubling time doesn’t stay at seven days.”
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Professor Whitty added that if cases continued to double every seven days as Sir Patrick had established, then the UK could “go quickly from really very small numbers to really very large numbers because of that exponential process.”
“So, in a bad way, we literally turned a corner, although only relatively recently,” he said.
The government’s top medical and scientific advisers are clearly concerned about the increase in cases seen in recent weeks.
The warning of 50,000 cases a day in mid-October is stark. We don’t know for sure how many cases there were at the peak in the spring (as there was very limited evidence), although some estimates put it at 100,000.
However, they also went to great lengths to point out that it was not a prediction.
Even among the government’s own advisers there is disagreement on whether what we are seeing is the beginning of an exponential increase or simply a gradual increase in cases, which is what one would expect at this time of year, since respiratory viruses tend to circulate more with the reopening of the company.
Instead, what was quite revealing was the clear social message. Even those who are not at high risk of complications should, they say, play their part in slowing the spread of the virus because, if it spreads, difficult decisions will be needed that will have profound social consequences.
But the big unanswered question is what the ministers will do next. There is talk of introducing more restrictions, but that is far from certain.
There are a couple of things going for us that weren’t in the spring. Better treatments now exist for those who become seriously ill, while the government is in a better position to protect vulnerable groups.
Should ministers wait and see what happens? Or should they crack down early, knowing that that will negatively impact in other ways?
Professor Whitty also said that although in different parts of the UK cases were increasing at different rates, and although some age groups are affected more than others, the evolving situation “is our whole problem”.
“What we have seen in other countries, and now we are seeing it clearly here, is that they are not staying just in the younger age groups, and that they advance in the age groups and the mortality rates will be similar to, slightly lower than they were previously, but will be similar to what we saw earlier. “
He said death rates from Covid-19 were “significantly higher” than those from the seasonal flu, which kills around 7,000 a year or 20,000 in a bad year.
