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Only one in 10 of the world’s population is likely to be protected against COVID-19 in the first year of a vaccine being available, experts told Sky News.
Analysis of global manufacturing capacity shows that only two billion doses could be made in 2021, even if a vaccine was given the green light by safety regulators earlier in the year.
But with seven of the nine vaccine prototypes in late-stage clinical trials requiring two doses, it is likely enough to immunize just a little over 12% of the 7.8 billion people who need it.
Dr Cleo Kontoravdi, Associate Professor of Chemical Engineering at Imperial College London, told Sky News: “We have to be clear that, in the first instance, not everyone will have access to the vaccine. We do not have the manufacturing capacity. “.
Dr. Cleo Kontoravdi Says Not Everyone Will Have Access To The Vaccine
Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations calculations show that even if manufacturing capacity were to double, as planned, less than half of the world’s population could be protected by the end of 2022 over the next 12 months.
It could mean that some travel restrictions and social distancing will be needed for years to come, unless there is a revolutionary advance in vaccine technology that accelerates production.
But producing large quantities of vaccine is just one of many obstacles that will need to be overcome in the coming months.
One of the biggest bottlenecks is traditionally found in the “fill and finish” production stage, when the vaccine is placed in glass vials, labeled, and packaged.
You need multiple supply chains to seamlessly converge, with the end product meeting high quality standards. Any hiccups can cause delays.
Sky News had access to Wockhardt’s plant in Wrexham, where the government purchased a high-speed production line to produce a finished vaccine for the next 18 months.
Preparations are underway to start production of the Oxford vaccine as early as November. Between two and three million vials could be produced each month, each containing eight doses.
Ravi Limaye, Wockhardt UK managing director, said the vials will be quarantined until the vaccine is approved by safety regulators, but will have to be destroyed if for any reason rejected.
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“This is a risk one must take considering the enormity of this pandemic,” he said.
The vaccine is placed in glass vials before it is labeled and packaged.
“This is an unprecedented step taken by the government in the UK’s interest to prepare the vaccine so that, if approved by regulators, it can be used immediately.
“It is a risk, but a calculated risk.”
