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Only 6% of the UK population had COVID-19 antibodies in early September, the government’s scientific advisers warned.
Recently released documents from the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE) say current levels of immunity are unlikely to mitigate the impact of “a significant winter resurgence.”
There is also evidence that antibody levels decline within two to three months, according to the minutes of a SAGE meeting on Sept. 3.
“Evidence from serological studies suggests that a small proportion (around 6%) of the UK population have antibodies against COVID-19“SAGE said.
“There is an antibody response in almost all infected people, including those who are asymptomatic (high confidence).
“It is not yet known how long these responses last, the degree of protection conferred, or the effects on transmission, but when neutralizing antibodies are present, protection against infection appears highly likely (medium confidence).”
SAGE added: “There is evidence that antibody levels decrease within 2-3 months (medium confidence).
“There is evidence that people with certain types and levels of antibodies can still have a significant viral load and potentially transmit the virus (high confidence).”
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said in May that a study had shown at least 5% of people in the UK had developed COVID-19 antibodies.
Meanwhile, researchers from the Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust found that just under 6% of England’s population had antibodies to the virus at the end of June – roughly 3.4 million people.
The latest revelations come as official figures show coronavirus baud rate – the R number – could now be as high as 1.4 in the United Kingdom.
SAGE said that there is a “widespread growth of the epidemic throughout the country”, with the number of new infections increasing between 2% and 7% every day.
The Office for National Statistics said cases are believed to have nearly doubled in a week to 6,000 a day in England, its worst prediction since mid-May.
Parts of the North West, West Yorkshire and the Midlands are now under more localized restrictions.
It means that, as of Tuesday, one in five of the UK’s population, just under 13 million people, will be living under additional restrictions.
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A further 4,322 coronavirus cases were confirmed on Friday, bringing the UK total to 385,936.
Twenty-seven more people died in the UK after testing positive for the virus, and the death toll now stands at 41,732.
Separate figures released by UK statistical agencies show that 57,500 deaths have now been recorded in the UK where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate.
