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By Jeremy Bowen
BBC Middle East Editor
image copyrightReuters
High-level delegations from Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will sign a historic US-brokered peace agreement at the White House on Tuesday.
Bahrain’s Foreign Minister will attend the event and sign his own agreement to normalize relations with Israel, announced by President Donald Trump last week.
That is why offers are important.
1. Gulf states see trade opportunities and more
The agreement helps the ambitious Emiratis, who have become a military power and a place to do business or go on vacation.
It appears that the Americans helped seal the deal with the promise of advanced weapons that, in the past, the UAE had barely been able to buy. They include the F-35 stealth fighter and the EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft.
The UAE has used its already well-equipped armed forces in Libya and Yemen. But its most serious potential enemy is Iran, just across the Gulf.
Israel and the United States share Emirati suspicions about the Iranians. Bahrain too. Until 1969, Iran used to claim that Bahrain was part of its territory in its own right. Bahrain’s Sunni rulers also see sections of their uneasy Shiite majority as a possible fifth column for Iran.
Both Gulf states already had barely hidden ties to Israel. They will expect to negotiate openly; Israel has one of the most advanced high-tech sectors in the world.
In non-Covid times, Israelis are avid tourists who will be eager to explore the deserts, beaches, and shopping malls of the Gulf. It’s a good deal overall.
2. Israel reduces its regional isolation
Normalizing relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain is a genuine achievement for the Israelis.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a believer in the strategy first described in the 1920s of an “iron wall” between the Jewish state and the Arabs.
The idea is that Israeli force will eventually make the Arabs realize that their only option is to acknowledge its existence.
Israelis do not like being isolated in the Middle East. Peace with Egypt and Jordan has never been warm. They might be more hopeful about future relations with the Gulf countries far away from the Jerusalem command booth and the occupied territories.
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Strengthening the alliance against Iran is another great advantage. Netanyahu views Iran as Israel’s number one enemy, sometimes comparing its leaders to the Nazis. It has silenced its original complaints about the possible UAE arms deal.
Netanyahu is also under siege and faces a corruption trial that could land him in jail. His handling of the coronavirus pandemic started well and has gone badly. Opponents hold weekly demonstrations outside their residence in Jerusalem.
A ceremony at the White House couldn’t have come at a better time.
3. Donald Trump celebrates a coup in foreign policy
The agreement works on several levels for the president of the United States.
It is a huge boost for his “maximum pressure” strategy on Iran. He’s also useful ammunition, especially in an election year, to back up his boast that he is the best negotiator in the world.
image copyrightReutersAnything you do that benefits Israel, or more specifically Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, goes well with American evangelical Christian voters, an important part of its electoral base.
The “friends of America” alliance against Iran should work better if the Gulf Arabs can be open, rather than reserved, about their relations with Israel.
President Trump’s so-called “Deal of the Century” to make peace between Israel and the Palestinians is a failure.
But the “Abraham Accords,” as the agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates is known, is a significant shift in the balance of power in the Middle East and is being presented by the Trump White House as a major political coup. Exterior.
4. Palestinians feel betrayed
Once again, they are left holding the wooden spoon.
They have condemned the Abrahamic Accords as a betrayal. The new agreement breaks an old Arab consensus that the price of normal relations with Israel was the independence of the Palestinians.
But now Israel is cementing new public relations with the Arab states while the Palestinians still languish under occupation in East Jerusalem and the West Bank, and in what amounts to an open prison in Gaza.
Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE’s de facto ruler, says his price for the deal was Israel’s agreement to stop the annexation of much of the West Bank.
image copyrightReutersBut Prime Minister Netanyahu seemed to have shied away from the idea, at least for now, due to overwhelming international pressure. The Emiratis offered him a way out of what had become an uncomfortable political dead end.
Palestinian nervousness will increase now that Bahrain has joined the agreement.
That would never have happened without the approval of Saudi Arabia. The Saudis were the authors of the Arab peace plan that demanded Palestinian independence.
King Salman’s status as custodian of Islam’s two holiest shrines gives him enormous authority. It is unlikely that he will suddenly recognize Israel.
His son and heir, Mohammed bin Salman, might be less reluctant.
5. Iran has a new strategic headache
The deal has been roundly condemned by the Iranian leadership.
It is more than rhetoric. The Abrahamic Accords put them under additional stress.
President Trump’s sanctions are already causing real economic pain. Now they also have a strategic headache.
image copyrightEPAIsrael’s local air bases are a long flight from Iran. The UAE is on the other side of the Gulf waters. That would be very significant if there was talk of air strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities again.
Israel, the US, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates have a range of new options.
The Iranians find that their room for maneuver has shrunk.
