[ad_1]
“WWe will have a vaccine very soon, ”Donald Trump told reporters last week. “Maybe even before a special date. You know what date I’m talking about. “
Never in the history of US elections, perhaps, has a sitting US president telegraphed the so-called “October surprise” so thoroughly. Following rival Joe Biden into the presidential race and running out of money, Trump in recent weeks has repeatedly mocked the imminent arrival of a coronavirus vaccine and explicitly linked it to the election calendar.
The hope for Trump, and the fear for Democrats, is that the promise of an imminent vaccine will move the election away from the question of who can beat the virus and closer to the question of who can restart the economy, the area in which Trump has consistently outperformed Biden and is a perennial issue for voters.
Trump doesn’t have to come up with a safe and effective vaccine before Election Day on November 3 for the strategy to work, analysts reason. You just need to convince enough undecided voters that the coronavirus has basically been defeated, so that when they enter the voting booth, they are thinking about what will come next.
“Biden has to move the number economically,” Mike Murphy, a veteran Republican political strategist who opposes Trump, said on his podcast. “Because if we have a vaccine mania, whether real or not, and people start to feel relieved, and it depends on who can start the economy again, during the last three weeks of the election, that’s Trump’s turf.” .
Trump’s apparent ability to manipulate key federal agencies involved in the approval of the vaccine has lent credibility to the scenario of a surprise vaccine. It has also raised fears that the Food and Drug Administration may improperly grant an emergency use authorization to a candidate vaccine that has not been sufficiently tested, potentially endangering public health.
The tragedy of such an outcome would be compounded by the fact that multiple safe and effective vaccines appear to be on the horizon in the United States, where companies have at least three candidates in phase three clinical trials, public health officials say.
But the political calculations surrounding Trump’s strategy for a coronavirus vaccine may not be as tight as the Trump camp seems to believe.
A successful vaccine launch, public health experts say, depends on the good-faith, coordinated efforts of the independent boards that oversee vaccine trials; pharmaceutical companies; public health officials; experts facing the public; and regulators.
In recent weeks, those voices have uncommonly coalesced in a message that runs precisely against Trump’s, urging patience as multiple vaccine candidates enter the later stages of clinical trials that could result in their eventual adoption.
“Certainly trying to predict whether it will happen in a particular week before or after a particular date in early November is far beyond what any scientist at this time could tell you and be sure you know what you are saying.” , Dr. Francis Collins, the director of the National Institutes of Health, told a Senate panel last week.
In an extraordinary gesture, nine leading pharmaceutical companies recently released a jointly signed letter pledging not to participate in the premature launch of a vaccine.
“We believe this commitment will help ensure public trust in the rigorous scientific and regulatory process by which Covid-19 vaccines are evaluated and ultimately approved,” the companies said.
Pharmaceutical companies could benefit enormously from producing a vaccine, but they also have a lot to lose if an ineffective or unsafe vaccine is presented to the public, said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy, on his podcast.
“If there is a problem with that vaccine, we will pay a price in the immunization world as long as I am on this earth,” Osterholm said. “They know that if they are a company that has a vaccine that should or could have been further examined, they will have a price to pay, not just an economic one.”
Public health officials closest to Trump have echoed those warnings. Dr. Anthony Fauci, a member of the White House coronavirus task force, has called a pre-election vaccine “unlikely,” noting that even after multiple effective vaccines are approved, it could take up to a year for enough people to adopt the vaccine. vaccine so that mass gatherings are safe.
“I think it will be a combination of a vaccine that has been around for almost a year and good public health measures” before theaters can safely reopen, Fauci said in an Instagram live chat.
At the same time that he ties the race for a vaccine to the electoral calendar, Trump has accused Biden and his running mate Kamala Harris of playing politics with the prospect of a coronavirus vaccine.
“They are going to make the vaccine negative,” Trump said last weekend.
Analysts warn there is a risk that Democrats raising the alarm about Trump’s political game with vaccines appear to be cheering for a vaccine. Harris drew criticism in that regard last week after stating outright that he “would not trust Donald Trump” in any vaccine ad.
But if the question of a coronavirus vaccine this close to a presidential election is to be a political one, Biden, the Democratic nominee, launched a different message.
“If I could get a vaccination tomorrow, I would,” he said. “If it cost me the election, I would.”
