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For people who present themselves as super patriots, Boris Johnson and his clique at No. 10 have a craze for stripping everything the world once considered the best in the British. The independence of the judiciary, the success of the BBC, the impartiality of the civil service and the authority of the parliament – all have been blocked and bottled up by the blue anarchists. When the Conservative leader tried his extension stunt last fall, he was even prepared to smear the queen’s position by giving her illegal advice. Now her delinquency has escalated to the point of explicitly breaking the rule of law. That cornerstone of British democracy and the lodestar of our country’s international reputation, the principle that once had no more passionate champion than the Conservative Party, is no longer safe from them.
It was an extraordinary moment when a member of the cabinet appeared before parliament to declare that the government plans to intentionally violate international law by unilaterally rewriting sections of the withdrawal agreement with the EU. Issue 10 then confirmed Johnson was ready to violate a treaty he negotiated less than a year ago, was the centerpiece of his speech to the British people in last December’s election, and then had the Commons ratify it swiftly in January. The deal that once prospered as a “wonderful” triumph for his personal diplomacy is now described by Number 10 as a hasty blunder that the prime minister never liked. The violation of a treaty that he himself signed and advocated sets a new standard of cheekiness.
The anger of European leaders has not surprised Number 10. Some there, those who think that spitting in someone’s face is an effective form of diplomacy, report that it was a deliberately inflammatory act.
A regime with an uncovered disregard for both officials and conventions likely shrugged off Sir Jonathan Jones’ resignation as head of the government’s legal department. Nor do they seem bothered by having horribly compromised the offices of the attorney general and the chancellor, who have sworn solemn oaths to uphold the law. Theresa May and Sir John Major are among the high-ranking Conservatives who were shocked to discover that a supposedly conservative government wants to turn Britain into a renegade state that breaks the treaty. Sir John warns: “If we lose our reputation for keeping the promises we make, we will have lost something without price.” The serious reprimands of two of his predecessors would have worried the previous prime ministers, but not this one. My word is that my bond is not a motto that Boris Johnson lived his life by.
What may disturb you, at least a little, is the vehemence of the reaction of some of the right wing of your party. No one has criticized him as fiercely as Michael Howard, a veteran Eurosceptic. That former Conservative leader makes the excellent point that the “severe damage” done to Britain’s moral authority will make it more difficult to criticize the violation of international law by countries like China, Russia and Iran. Norman Lamont, a former Conservative chancellor and one of the early Brexit prophets, chimed in to say the government had gotten into “terrible trouble.” Even fans at No. 10 can have a shiver of self-doubt when they’re losing conservative elders like Brexity like Lords Howard and Lamont.
The trigger for this simultaneous descent into rogue nation status and the leap to the brink of a Brexit into collapse was the deadlock in talks with the EU. Not surprisingly, they proved much more difficult than Brexit supporters intended to pretend during the referendum campaign, when the negotiation was to be a “no brainer,” and again in the run-up to the December elections, when Johnson He promised that his “oven-ready deal” would secure “a fantastic new trade deal with the EU.” As some of us commented at the time, “Get Brexit Done” was both the most effective slogan of the Conservatives’ election campaign and the most liar.
What was more difficult to anticipate is that the negotiations have run into serious difficulties on the issue of trade subsidies. In exchange for continued access to its single market, the EU wants the UK to comply with state aid restrictions to prevent companies on this side of the Canal from gaining an unfair advantage. These rules of competition arose from the creation of the single market promoted by Margaret Thatcher. If the Iron Lady were still with us, she would melt in horror that a government calling itself Conservative is fighting to the brink for the right to use market-distorting subsidies. And imagine your bewilderment to discover that a French politician is leading the other side of the discussion. The main reason this has become such a contentious topic is Dominic Cummings. Many excellent sources report that the prime minister’s top adviser has an obsessive ambition to direct large amounts of government aid in support of tech companies. Savvy conservatives are amazed that their government destroys Britain’s reputation as a trusted international partner, ruins our trade and security relations with our closest neighbors, and jeopardizes the prospects of many existing British companies for the self-proclaimed genius of Number 10. may fantasize that he is a cross. between Elon Musk, Sergey Brin, and Masayoshi Son as he squanders taxpayers’ money on whatever idea comes to mind at the top of his head. This is a most surreal place for the Conservative party.
A growing band of conservatives can see this. Disgust at the infringement of international law has combined with the many discontent over the handling of the coronavirus crisis to increase fever among Conservative MPs. When I called a senior conservative, our conversation started with him asking, “Covid or Brexit? What the fuck do you want to talk about?
Among conservatives who still believe the rule of law is important, a rebellion is gaining ground. Even if the prime minister has his way in the Commons, his plan will be shattered in the Lords, where there are many peers who take issues of constitutionality very seriously. There is no indication that the EU flinches at Johnson’s violent risk-taking policy with which they are now very familiar. Rather, his unit has hardened around the threat of trade and financial sanctions if he doesn’t back down by the end of the month.
It is characteristic of the tight and self-admiring bubble at number 10 that they embarked on this dangerous path without considering how other powerful political forces might react. In particular, they forgot to consider that the American Irish caucus in Washington would respond angrily to the illegal meddling in special protocols on Northern Ireland. On both sides of the aisle, congressmen and women criticize the latest move by the Johnson administration as a risk to the Good Friday deal. If they are hostile to Britain, there is no prospect of striking a trade deal with the United States, which Brexiters have always touted as one of their company’s great prizes.
There are many skilled diplomats and officials working for the British government with the connections and experience to have sensed how badly this reckless tactic would backfire, but the behavior of Number 10 deters them from offering honest advice. As one senior conservative puts it: “The climate of fear in Whitehall that they (Johnson and Cummings) have created means that officials are not rushing to warn them when they are about to make a mistake.”
Continuing down this path will also increase the threat to the UK’s integrity and make it far more conceivable for history to record Boris Johnson as the prime minister Scotland lost. Nationalists have already thrived immensely from Scottish resentment that they are being forced into a Brexit, most of which are opposed by a conservative government that an even larger majority did not want. A catastrophic Brexit that occurs in the months leading up to next spring’s elections to the Holyrood parliament will all be their Hogmanays at once for the SNP. That would surely guarantee them a resounding victory that they would then use to claim an irresistible mandate for another referendum on independence. In the words of a once-high-ranking conservative in cabinet: “A no-deal Brexit will put rocket boosters under Nicola Sturgeon. What is a Conservative government doing that puts the UK at such risk? “
Indeed? Perhaps that high-ranking Tory is asking the wrong question about a government that vandalizes many of the principles and institutions that conservatives once held dear. From a regime that violates international law and endangers the union, the Tories should ask themselves: is this a conservative government?
• Andrew Rawnsley is the Observer’s chief political commentator
