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Coronavirus infections have risen in recent weeks in the UK, according to new estimates.
The latest government R number is between 1 and 1.2, which means that the epidemic is growing.
And a study of thousands of people in England found that cases were doubling every seven to eight days, with a marked increase in the north and among young people.
Starting Monday, new laws will be introduced on how many people can socialize indoors and outdoors.
The ‘rule of six’ will ban gatherings of more than six people indoors in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
It was also announced that Birmingham will become the latest area to introduce new restrictions after an increase in cases.
But three separate large studies have indicated a widespread resurgence of the coronavirus throughout the population.
And the R (reproduction) number, which describes how many more people each infected person transmits the virus to, has also increased.
If it is higher than one, as now, the number of infected increases.
But the virus is still at much lower levels in the UK than it was at the peak of the pandemic in April.
The UK is entering a new stage in the coronavirus pandemic.
Since closing, we have been deciding how to react to the drop in cases. But now the R number has passed the crucial level of 1 for the first time since March and is backed by a wealth of data showing that cases are growing again.
This is not limited to hotspots like Bolton – a government adviser told me that the increase was widespread across the country.
They said today was a “wake-up call” for the nation. There are already some signs that the number of people entering the hospital is starting to rise.
But this is not a repeat of the preparation for the lockdown. Cases are at a much lower level and growing more slowly.
Before closing, the R number was around three, and cases were doubling every three to four days. It’s about half now.
The coronavirus will be a big challenge until we have a vaccine.
So the defining question as we head into a potentially difficult winter is how to balance controlling the virus with moving on with our lives.
The REACT study of more than 150,000 volunteers in England, one of three new sources of community-level data, found “accelerated transmission” in late August and early September.
He said infection levels were increasing in England, but particularly in the North East, North West and Yorkshire.
And there were increases in positive cases in all age groups up to 65 years, with higher growth rates in those aged 18 to 24.
Professor Paul Elliott, head of the study at Imperial College London, said the data clearly shows “a worrying trend in coronavirus infections” where cases are growing rapidly in England and “are no longer concentrated in key workers”.
He said there was evidence of “an epidemic in the community” that was not the result of more people being tested.
The second data set, from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) says that there has been no increase in cases in Wales during the first week of September. An estimated 1,200 people contracted coronavirus in the week between August 30 and September 5.
But in England, the equivalent estimate was 39,700, 11,000 more than the previous week.
The ONS bases its figures on thousands of smear tests done at home, whether people have symptoms or not.
Katherine Kent of the ONS infection survey said the results suggested “an increase in Covid-19 infections in England over the past few weeks, with higher infection rates among young people aged 17 to 34”.
Nicola Sturgeon has warned that the average number of cases in Scotland has been “more than triple every three weeks”.
And the third set of figures, from the Covid symptom study app, which tracks the health of nearly four million people in the UK, also suggests an increase in new cases since the end of August, the first time since mid-August. June there has been a significant increase in the number.
