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LONDON – Britain and the European Union were on a collision course Thursday, after Brussels demanded the swift withdrawal of proposed Brexit legislation that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government admitted would violate international law.
The ultimatum, which the Johnson administration quickly rejected, is the gravest crisis to date for negotiations on a trade deal after Britain leaves the European Union trade zone. The talks have not made any significant progress, but they have somehow stayed alive.
The dispute suggests that the moment of truth is fast approaching.
The proposed legislation would nullify aspects of a historic Brexit withdrawal agreement that involves treatment of the border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, and Ireland, which will remain in the European Union.
In a tough statement underscoring the mounting tension, the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, suggested that it was ready to take legal action against the British government, accusing it of threatening the fragile Northern Ireland peace process.
Johnson himself reached the withdrawal agreement with the European Union and defended it during last year’s elections on his way to a landslide victory. It was designed in part to avoid creating a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.
But European Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič said Johnson’s bill would constitute “an extremely serious violation” of international law and demanded its withdrawal before the end of the month. As drafted, the legislation would give Britain the right to decide how to implement the sensitive aspects of the treaty unilaterally rather than through negotiation with the European Union as required by law.
That demand was rejected by Michael Gove, a senior British cabinet minister, who said the British government had made it “perfectly clear” that it would not withdraw the bill despite admitting that it violates international law to a limited extent.
By issuing its ultimatum, the European Union failed to take an irreversible step or walk away from the trade talks. And the two sides agreed to keep talking next week after what David Frost, Britain’s top negotiator, described as “useful exchanges” that took place separately on Thursday.
He and his counterpart Michel Barnier need to reach a trade deal next month if it is to be ratified before the end of the year, when Britain stops trading under European Union rules.
“With the EU saying ‘you have until the end of the month,’ one side has to backtrack,” said David Henig, director of the UK Trade Policy Project at the European Center for International Political Economy, a research institute. , “and this is a difficult situation if we want to reach an agreement in mid-October. The EU is not going to back down.”
There is no indication that Johnson plans to back down on either, stating earlier this week that failing to reach a trade deal with the European Union would still be a “good result.” Although it has shown flexibility in the past, and its government has made a number of policy changes, the government has taken an uncompromising line on Brexit, giving little indication that it intends to compromise, let alone give way to Brussels.
While another crisis in the Brexit negotiation seemed almost inevitable, few expected the confrontation to be about putting into motion an agreement that had already been signed and sealed. Britain argues that its new bill is to provide an alternative option in case it cannot reach a trade deal with Brussels, but it is not even clear that it will pass Parliament unscathed.
Critics said Johnson’s risk of miscalculation was high. Far from being a peripheral issue, the provisions on the Irish border are the centerpiece of the withdrawal agreement. They united the 27 members of the bloc during lengthy and divisive negotiations with Britain on Brexit, because they are seen as so closely intertwined with Irish peacekeeping.
“The EU will not allow peace in Ireland to be tapped into a negotiation,” said Mujtaba Rahman, a Brexit expert at the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. “They see very clearly what the government is doing and they are not going to be intimidated. Britain is playing a very dangerous chicken game with Europe. “
There are other international consequences for the game.
Democratic leaders in Washington warned Johnson that he was putting his hopes for a transatlantic trade deal at risk. Undermining Northern Ireland’s provisions in the withdrawal agreement, they said, would jeopardize the Good Friday Agreement, a peace deal negotiated under President Bill Clinton that ended decades of sectarian violence in Ireland.
“If the UK violates that international treaty and Brexit undermines the Good Friday Agreement, there will be absolutely no chance that a US-UK trade deal will be approved by Congress,” said California President Nancy Pelosi in a statement Wednesday.
Rep. Richard E. Neal, a Massachusetts Democrat who is chairman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee of the House of Representatives, urged Britain to stick with the withdrawal agreement.
“I sincerely hope that the British government upholds the rule of law and fulfills the commitments it made during the Brexit negotiations, particularly with regard to the Irish border,” Neal said in a statement.
“All the political parties on the island oppose the return of a hard border,” he said.
The Democratic candidate, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., is a staunch defender of Ireland who said he would have voted against Brexit if he were a British citizen. One of his top foreign policy advisers, Antony Blinken, suggested in a tweet this week that Biden was watching the situation closely.
Mr Biden, he wrote, “is committed to preserving the hard-won peace and stability in Northern Ireland.” He added: “As the UK and the EU work on their relationship, any deal must protect the Good Friday Agreement and prevent the return of a hard border.”
