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Now that summer is a distant memory, a cloud of doom seems to have returned to these shores.
Yesterday, Britain recorded more than 2,400 new cases of Covid-19 for the third day in a row, raising the possibility of a fearsome second spike.
While England’s Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jonathan Van-Tam warned that the latest surge in cases is “very worrying”, Health Secretary Matt Hancock was much more blunt.
Pointing to the rise in infections among young people in Britain, he urged them: ‘Do not kill your grandmother by contracting the coronavirus and transmitting it.’
Indeed, such is the fear among officials that a member of the Government’s Emergency Scientific Advisory Group has even suggested that Christmas could be suspended.
While 40 percent of test results were positive in April, this number has plummeted to just 2.3 percent in the community and 0.5 percent in hospitals (file image)
But before we sink into apocalyptic misery, let’s take a look at the science.
Because despite the doom and sadness, not everything is as bad as it seems, writes John Naish.
In fact, as these ten reasons reveal, everything indicates that the second Covid-19 attack will not be as bad as the first …
1. The proportion of positive tests has decreased
Yes, more people test positive for Covid-19. But rather than simply being the result of an increase in infections, it is also because much more testing is underway now than at the height of the pandemic in April and March.
Back then, only a fraction of people who were seriously ill were tested, so the first daily figures of 5,000 new infections were only a fraction of the actual total.
More importantly, while in April 40 percent of test results were positive, this number has plummeted to just 2.3 percent in the community and 0.5 percent in hospitals.
2. Infections are much less virulent
While Covid-19 cases have risen in the UK since early July, death rates among those infected have plummeted.
In fact, researchers from the University of Oxford have found that the percentage of people infected with Covid-19 who die from it dropped from 6% on June 24 to just 1.5% on August 5.
That equates to a four-fold drop in less than six weeks. While it may seem insensitive, one explanation for this is that the virus claimed the most vulnerable victims first, leading to a surprisingly high initial death rate.
But another reason could be that the coronavirus is spreading in smaller doses, thanks to social distancing. This means that people may be less intensely infected and therefore more likely to defeat the virus.
As statistician Tim Harford recently wrote on these pages, the prospect of dying from Covid-19 is not much more than taking a bath.
3. Deaths are also decreasing
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), deaths from coronavirus are no longer inflating the excess overall death rate in England and Wales.
Yesterday, 30 more deaths were reported in Britain from Covid-19, the largest increase in six weeks. But according to ONS data for the week ending August 28, there were 599 fewer deaths than the previous week.
Researchers at the University of Oxford have found that the percentage of people infected with Covid-19 who die from it dropped from 6 percent on June 24 to just 1.5 percent on August 5 (file image )
4. We have found drugs that save lives
When Covid-19 first appeared, doctors around the world were forced to improvise treatments as scientists scrambled to find a cure.
At first, many patients in intensive care were put on ventilators, despite the fact that it is now considered an ineffective and, in some cases, dangerous treatment.
The good news is that cheap and effective drugs in the form of two steroids, dexamethasone and hydrocortisone, have been discovered in recent months.
Last week, a major study showed that treatment with these steroids can save eight lives for every 100 critically ill patients treated, a figure hailed as “impressive” by its researchers.
They do this by effectively calming the immune system of a patient who would otherwise be brutally aggravated by Covid-19, with potentially lethal consequences.
“At the beginning of the year, it sometimes seemed almost desperate to learn that we didn’t have specific treatments,” says Professor Anthony Gordon of Imperial College London. “However, less than six months later, we have found clear and reliable evidence in high-quality clinical trials of how we can address this devastating disease.”
5. The virus is spreading to resistant youth
While positive tests among older and more vulnerable generations have decreased, the rise in Covid-19 cases is being driven by healthy and resilient people in their teens and 20s, where infection numbers have tripled since July. , according to official data.
This means that the number of severe cases should remain low, as younger people are disproportionately more likely to be asymptomatic or have controllable symptoms.
In fact, Cambridge University statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter says: “In school-age children between the ages of five and 14, it is not just minimal risk, it is a minimal proportion of normal risk.”
Of course, any life lost, especially when the victim is young, is tragic. But we must not ignore the fact that the demographic that is now mostly infected is in a better position to survive.
6. Optimism for a vaccine
When the virus first appeared, scientists warned that it could take years for a suitable vaccine to be found. To further compound the fears, preliminary evidence suggested that our bodies could only produce antibodies to Covid-19 for a few months at the most, making vaccines uselessly temporary.
But last week, a study in Iceland found that when our bodies are naturally infected by the coronavirus, they produce a long-lasting form of protective antibodies.
Additionally, as of yesterday, about six vaccines were in the final stages of testing, known as phase three clinical trials, while Russia has already approved another, although scientists are skeptical that proper safety procedures have been observed.
Fundamentally, vaccine researchers at the University of Oxford believe they have made a breakthrough, leading Kate Bingham, chair of the UK Vaccine Task Force, to say: “I think we have a chance to get a vaccine. this year”.
7. We are wiser and better prepared
The UK is much better prepared for a new wave of Covid-19 infections than it was in March, with NHS hospitals restructured to deal with infectious patients.
Following the rapid construction of so-called Nightingale Hospitals, many of which were largely unused and have now been put “into hibernation”, if anything, Britain is too prepared for a second peak.
8. The public army is available
While much of the government’s initial Covid-19 guidance was criticized for being unclear, the vast majority of Britain is now doing its part to ensure the virus does not spread through a combination of social distancing, use of masks and hand washing.
If these preventive strategies are practiced steadily and consistently, future spread of Covid-19 will be limited.
9. Initial fears were unfounded
At the peak of the pandemic in March, Prime Minister Boris Johnson featured a now highly ridiculed article published by Imperial College Professor Neil Ferguson that claimed that 500,000 people in Britain could die from Covid-19.
The current death toll in the UK is 41,586. Yes, it is still a high number. But it is far from the apocalyptic figure first raised by the Government.
10. We can use local locks
Of course, the introduction of regional lockdowns after localized spikes has been largely unpopular with those affected by them. But they appear to be an effective tool in Britain’s anti-Covid arsenal.
Just yesterday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the local closure in Leicester had caused a “very significant” drop in cases and measures there will be reviewed on Thursday.
With its successful implementation, there is a chance that we could stop the spread of the virus from one region to another.
