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Good Morning. Earlier in the year, I often heard commentators speculate on the prospects of the UK facing a nightmare fall / winter scenario, where all the turmoil of a no-deal Brexit was combined with a second wave of coronavirus. We are not there yet, but this morning the two main stories on the agenda look like signs towards that future.
On the Covid front, the government is responding to news that yesterday nearly 3,000 people in the UK tested positive for Covid-19, a 50% increase in a single day and the highest daily total since May.
And, on the Brexit front, Boris Johnson has made two moves which, together, amount to a significant tightening of his stance in the UK-EU trade talks. Perhaps it is just a tough stance that will encourage the EU to compromise, paving the way for a deal, but if so, that’s a high-risk strategy, and this is equally likely to accelerate the slide to a no-deal.
First, Johnson has set October 15 as the absolute deadline for the end of trade talks.. In a statement last night she said:
The EU has been very clear about the timing. I also. There needs to be an agreement with our European friends before the European Council on 15 October if it is to be in force by the end of the year. So there is no point in thinking about timelines that go beyond that point. If we can’t agree by then, then I don’t see that there is a free trade agreement between us, and we should both accept it and move on.
Second, and this is much, much more provocative and unexpected, the government has confirmed that it is preparing legislation that would apparently allow it to void parts of the withdrawal agreement, the legally binding treaty signed with the EU in January. Here’s our story on the news, which was originally a Financial Times scoop.
We have not yet seen the new legislation, the UK Internal Market Bill, but it was clear to those who informed the FT that it would nullify parts of the withdrawal agreement related to the Northern Ireland protocol (the rules that keep Northern Ireland in the single market, in effect putting a customs border in the Irish Sea). The FT says:
It is a very forceful instrument, ”said one of those familiar with the subject. “The bill will state explicitly that the government reserves the right to establish its own regime, directly establishing UK law in opposition to the obligations arising from the withdrawal agreement, and with full knowledge that this will violate international law.” .
But this morning George Eustice, the environment secretary, stated that the UK was not ignoring the agreement and that the new law would simply fix “loose ends” where the agreement was ambiguous. When told that the government was abandoning a treaty he signed in January, he replied:
No. We are not saying that at all. We have a withdrawal agreement and that includes the Northern Ireland protocol. And we are committed to implementing that.
And there are ongoing negotiations through something called the joint committee process … a separate process from the main negotiation on a future trade deal.
But it has always been recognized that that joint committee process was necessary to work out some remaining technical details about how the Northern Ireland protocol would work.
And it may well be the case that once the joint committee process has concluded, there will be one or two loose ends in which there is a requirement of legal certainty. And where the government may need to legislate to provide that legal clarity and certainty.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9 am: Matt Hancock participates in an LBC phone entry.
12:00 h: Downing Street lobby briefing.
12:15 pm: Nicola Sturgeon gives a Scottish Government Coronavirus briefing.
2.30 pm: Gavin Williamson, the secretary of education, answers questions in the Commons.
3.30 pm: Urgent questions and statements in the Commons. Priti Patel, the Home Secretary, is expected to make a statement from Commons about the Extinction Rebellion newspaper’s print press blocks, but we may also receive statements or UQ about Brexit and coronavirus.
Politics Live has doubled as the UK’s coronavirus live blog for some time and given the way the Covid crisis overshadows everything, for the foreseeable future it will still focus primarily on the coronavirus. But we will also cover non-Covid stories, like Brexit, and where they seem most important and interesting, they will take precedence.
Here’s our global coronavirus live blog.
If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m at @ AndrewGorrión.
I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, put “Andrew” somewhere and you’re more likely to find it. I try to answer questions and if they are of general interest I will post the question and answer above the line (ATL), although I cannot promise to do this for everyone.
If you want to get my attention quickly, it’s probably best to use Twitter.
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