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Wirral, Leeds, Middlesbrough and Caerphilly are among the places that could emerge as coronavirus hot spots in the next fortnight, a new interactive map shows.
Bolton, South Tyneside and Corby are likely to remain hotspots for weeks, based on the map that attempts to predict new local outbreaks in England and Wales.
This week Bolton was ordered to remain in a local lockdown following another U-turn by the Boris Johnson government.
The map, created by researchers at Imperial College London, shows where cases are increasing and predicts if they could become the next hot spots. It is expected to encourage local authorities to act before it is too late.
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(Image: Imperial College London)
See the full interactive map here
The map shows the probability of a local authority becoming an access point as a percentage.
The data suggests that Wirral in Merseyside, Leeds in West Yorkshire, Middlesbrough, Rossendale in Lancashire, Breckland in Norfolk, could become high-risk areas in the next fortnight.
The probability for those areas is 92% for Rossendale, 85% for Wirral, 79% for Leeds and Caerphilly, 76% for Breckland and 74% for Middlesbrough for the week ending September 19.
The current Bolton and South Tyneside hotspots have a 99% chance. Corby in Northamptonshire has a 79% chance of remaining a hotspot within two weeks.
Cases are declining in Oldham and it is unlikely that it will remain a hotspot.
The researchers define an access point as a local authority where there are more than 50 cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 inhabitants per week.
Its map uses daily and weekly reported death figures and mathematical models to calculate the probability that a local authority will become a hotspot in the following week.
It also provides estimates of whether the cases are likely to increase or decrease, and the probability that the R number is greater than one.
(Image: Daily Mirror / Andy Stenning)
If it is greater than one, it indicates that the outbreak is out of control and cases will continue to increase.
The predictions are based on current government measures to slow the spread of the coronavirus, and each local authority is treated independently of its neighbors in the model.
An increase in cases at a local authority may be due to an increase in testing, which the model does not take into account, the researchers said.
It also does not take demographic factors into account.
Lead researcher Professor Axel Gandy, from Imperial’s Department of Mathematics, said: “The model allows us to project where local Covid-19 hotspots are likely to develop in England and Wales based on the trends we are seeing in those. areas.
“Unfortunately, Covid-19 is still with us, but we hope it will be a useful tool for local and national governments trying to control hotspots.”
Dr Swapnil Mishra, MRC Center for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, said: “We provide weekly predictions of the evolution of Covid-19 at the local authority level in England and Wales.
“Our model helps identify hot spots, potential local areas of concern. We hope that our estimates will allow rapid action at the local level to control the spread of the epidemic.”
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