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A leaked government report suggests a “reasonable worst case scenario” of 85,000 deaths in the UK this winter due to Covid-19.
The document also says that while more restrictions could be reintroduced, schools would likely remain open.
But he says the report “is a scenario, not a prediction” and the data is subject to “significant uncertainty.”
However, some are critical of the model and say that some are already out of date.
The document, which has been viewed by BBC Newsnight, was prepared for the government by the scientific advisory group Sage, which aims to help the NHS and local authorities plan services, such as mortuaries and burial services, for the coming months of winter.
Among their key assumptions are that schools will remain open and that government tracking, isolation and quarantine measures will only be 40% effective in reducing the spread of Covid outside of homes.
It also states that by November “policy measures will be put in place to reduce contacts outside the home to half their normal levels prior to March 2020.” In other words, restrictions could be put in place to mitigate the impact, in addition to school closings.
According to the report, these measures could be expected to remain in effect until March 2021.
The model attempts to calculate excess deaths in England and Wales between July 2020 and March 2021. These are deaths above what would normally be expected during that period and are based on data from ONS.
The model has been adjusted to account for people who were expected to die from other illnesses.
He said that in England and Wales there could be 81,000 excess deaths due to Covid, plus 27,000 excess deaths from non-Covid causes.
In Scotland there could be 2,600 direct deaths from Covid and 1,900 in Northern Ireland.
In addition to excess deaths, the model also suggests how many people may need hospital treatment between November and March, including intensive care.
The figures, which scientists say have a wide range of uncertainty, suggest that about 2.4% of infected people could be hospitalized (range: 0.0% -8.9%) and that 20.5% of hospitalized patients were admitted to the ICU (range: 1.5% – 35.25). and 23.3% (range: 1.2% – 43.3%) of all hospitalized patients who die.
The model also predicts an overall infection mortality rate of 0.7% (0.0% – 9.7%).
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The document suggests that while more closures could be introduced, schools would remain open.
While the model is by no means a prediction and is subject to “significant uncertainty,” the reasonable worst-case scenario is used to inform government planning decisions.
However, some are critical of the model and believe that some of the assumptions in the “sensitive official” model prepared for the Cabinet Office are incorrect and the model is useless given the wide range of possible scenarios.
Professor Carl Heneghan of the University of Oxford said that some of the assumptions made in the model were “implausible” and that the report assumes that “we have not learned anything from the first wave of this disease.”
BBC Newsnight has also spoken with planning folks from local authorities who say the wide range of possibilities for deaths and hospitalizations makes it difficult to know whether Covid-19 will have little impact or lead to additional catastrophic pressures in the coming months.
Nigel Edwards, executive director of the Nuffield Trust group of health experts, said the report had “very wide ranges” of scenarios that make it “quite difficult for people to figure out exactly what they should be doing.”
‘Useless’ model
Professor Heneghan said that these centralized big picture models were “useless” and better local surveillance data was needed.
This is not the first “worst case scenario” provided by government experts.
Last month, a report, requested by the UK’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance, suggested that there could be around 120,000 new coronavirus deaths in a second wave of infections this winter.
In response to Friday’s leaked report, a UK government spokesperson said: “As a responsible government, we have been planning and continue to prepare for a wide range of scenarios, including reasonable worst-case scenarios.”
“Our planning is not a forecast or prediction of what will happen. It reflects a responsible government that ensures that we are prepared for all eventualities.”
A spokesperson further claimed that planning assumptions were being reviewed and modified as scientific and medical advice on Covid-19 developed.
There have been more than 330,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus so far in the UK and more than 40,000 people have died.
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