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The capital could get rid of coronavirus sooner than you think, as new models suggest the city registers only 24 new cases per day.
The reproduction rate of ‘R’ has dropped to 0.4 in London, and the number of new cases is halved every 3.5 days, according to an analysis by the University of Cambridge and Public Health England. It was initially the center of the UK outbreak and was considered weeks ahead of the rest of the country.
When the blockade was imposed on March 23, it was being hit by around 200,000 new cases per day, but the model suggests it could be free of new diagnoses for the next month. The team of researchers estimates that around 1.8 million people in London (20%) have already had the disease, suggesting they may have a higher level of immunity, making it difficult for the virus to spread.
However, it is a different story for the northeast of England, which registers around 4,000 infections every day. The country is still progressing overall, as the data shows that the R value in England is 0.75, below the 1.0 set by Boris Johnson as a requirement to facilitate blocking rules. Research suggests that the rate in the North East and Yorkshire is 0.8, compared to 0.76 in the South West, 0.73 in the North West, 0.71 in the East of England and 0.68 in the Midlands.
The team of researchers says between 10 and 24 people in London had contracted coronavirus on May 10. But some experts have questioned the PHE-Cambridge projection, based on death data from both bodies, who say the rate in London is “extremely likely to be that low.”
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Public Health England’s analysis is now provided to local councils and authorities to help them measure the spread of the virus and the level of immunity in their region. The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) is reportedly considering using regional locks to isolate areas where the infection rate is significantly higher.
Social distancing concerns arose after This week images of crowded London Underground trains emerged with many passengers without masks. Speaking on Sky News this morning, Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis said: “If people use proper social distancing on public transportation” it is safe. “
When asked if the blocking measures could be launched at the regional level, he said, “Well, we are taking a science-based and data-driven approach at all stages of this.” If the analysis is correct and London is much lower than elsewhere, it is important that we do not allow that to increase again. “
Lewis insisted on whether it would be comfortable to use public transportation and said: “Well, if we are practicing adequate social distancing, yes, it is safe.”
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“ And I think what I really mean is, look, it’s a fair point, if everyone goes to public transport, there will be a challenge to be able to follow the social distancing and people see images of people showing where the social distancing is It is not being followed.
“That is why we are so clear about telling people that we must follow social distancing to stay on top of this R level, that is why we are telling people not to use public transportation unless it is absolutely necessary”.
Despite the promising study by Public Health England and the University of Cambridge, a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine cautions that the capital’s true infection rate is likely to be “a little higher.”
Speaking to the BBC Radio 4 Today program, he said: ‘Well, there are some variations around this and there is some uncertainty in this, but what we have observed in London is that the numbers of cases and the numbers of deaths have decreased more faster than in other parts of the country, albeit from a considerably higher level.
“So I think … well, I’d say it’s a little bit higher than that, but it’s probably shorter than the rest of the country.”
When asked if the R rate should be considered at the regional level, Professor Funk said, “I absolutely do, yes.”
Insisting on whether the government should react to the different rates of R at the regional level also in terms of policy, he added: “I think that is something that we will probably have to do in the future.”
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