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The first national snapshot of Covid-19 rates has revealed that 148,000 people in England have been infected with the virus in the past two weeks.
The study, conducted by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), evaluated 10,705 people in more than 5,000 households and estimated that 0.27% of the population in England was currently positive for Covid-19. That translates to approximately 10,000 people per day in the entire population, between April 27 and May 10, 2020.
The findings will inform the government’s next steps in considering whether it’s safe enough to further ease restrictions on socialization, business, and schools in the coming weeks. Experts suggest that current infection rates remain “somewhat far” from what it would take to lift the block.
The results are likely to fuel concerns about the potential to open elementary schools on June 1 to fuel transmission in the community, as no evidence of differences in positive proportions was found between categories 2 to 19, 20 to 49. , 50 to 69 and 70 years and over.
The study also reveals much higher infection rates among those who work with patients in health care and those in social care roles, with 1.33% of these participants with positive results.
The figures do not include people in hospitals or nursing homes where rates of Covid-19 infection, and possibly transmission, are likely to be higher.
The results are the national snapshot of what will be a weekly exercise, designed to provide a continuous estimate of current infection levels and transmission rates in the community. Future updates are also expected to provide regional breakdowns and antibody test results, showing how many people have been infected in the past.
The result does not provide a direct measurement of R, the effective number of reproduction of the virus, which tells us if the country is on an exponentially increasing trajectory or if the infection numbers are decreasing. The current number is a snapshot, while R is the gradient of the curve and is calculated using current infection rates and other data such as hospital admissions, past infection serology surveys, and behavioral contact surveys.