[ad_1]
We have been locked up for a long time. We entered together as a country and for the past few weeks the instructions have been very black and white: “Stay home, protect the NHS and save lives.”
But the next few weeks will be quite gray. The Prime Minister knows that there is no simple route out of confinement: different groups of people, workers, regions, nations can take different paths.
The Prime Minister has at least one clear guiding principle against which to outline this roadmap: the R rate.
Keep the rate of reproduction of the disease below 1, and the rate of transmission is decreasing. This will be the benchmark by which all decisions will be made.
Sunday night made it clear that any significant relief from the blockade must wait: the R rate is still running at 0.5-0.9 and there is still a “horrible epidemic” of COVID-19 in nursing homes.
The number of daily cases is also too high to facilitate blocking in any significant way.
A high-ranking government figure told me that the number of new cases is running at around 16,000 per day, well above the 4,000 new cases that the government would want to see before it can lift the blockade without risking a spike in the epidemic.
According to current estimates, cases should drop to the 4,000 mark in about three weeks, which is why the prime minister has set June as the possible start date for phase two to ease the blockade.
There are so many shades of gray in the government plan Because the decisions that ministers will make depend on a virus that they don’t really understand and on public behavior that they cannot fully predict.
Boris Johnson’s statement marked a change in messaging instead of real politics.
This is a government that ordered us to shut down and is now beginning to give us a little more space to read between the lines on how we might choose to live with COVID-19.
The actual changes were quite modest.
Starting Wednesday, people will be able to go out as much as they want. They can exercise, go to the beach, sit in the park and sunbathe with another person, 2 meters away, or play golf, tennis or swim in the sea.
And it has also asked those who cannot work from home, those in construction or manufacturing, to actively try to return to work.
In the round, these adjustments give much more scope for people to start working again and socializing again, albeit in a limited way.
Tennis teachers can start classes again and golf clubs can reopen. Friends can meet in the park and children can have a kick (socially estranged) with a friend.
Different people will make different decisions based on their own risk appetite, but as we move down this curve, different groups of people will also be asked different questions.
In June, non-essential workers at the store could return to work, while hairdressers, gym instructors and bar staff will have to wait. Some children will return to school, starting with elementary school children in reception, year one and year six, while others will not.
There will be divisions in all nations and divisions in different age groups. Perhaps there will be different blockade measures implemented in cities or regions as the government tries to control the outbreaks.
Everything is conditioned to the R rate and the level of new cases.
And there are many practical questions on how to lift this block. Scotland and Wales’ prime ministers raised an obvious one this weekend.
Nicola Sturgeon does not want to change the “stay home” message and will certainly not send Scottish children back to school starting June 1.
Senior ministers are exasperated by what they see as Mrs Sturgeon’s attempt to raise her profile to that of the Prime Minister and re-elect Johnson as the ruler of England rather than the entire Union.
:: Listen to Sophy Ridge on Sunday on Apple podcasts, Google podcasts, Spotify, Spreaker
Sturgeon, for his part, says he is acting in the interest of the Scottish people and will not be governed by a set timetable at Westminster.
As for the general public, there may be a feeling of anxiety and nervousness that different parts of the country disagree with each other. It creates a sense of confusion and lack of clear direction and purpose.
There are also obvious concerns from unions and the Labor Party about ‘return to work’ messages when adequate safety guidelines have not been agreed.
The unions were up for discussion just a week ago and have yet to agree new guidelines with the government.
Blue-collar workers return to work 12 hours in advance, and no official guidance is, in the words of alternate business secretary Ed Miliband, “irresponsible and wrong.”
And as for our personal relationships, the new guidelines suggest that we can meet someone outside of our park home or go for a walk as long as you are socially removed.
But that, of course, will raise obvious questions: Can you meet two people, can you sit in each other’s gardens, can you sit in your own home with a friend if they are two meters away?
And what about those over 70? The prime minister did not offer details on his roadmap outside the blockade.
These are all shades of gray. Entering the running of the bulls was a very difficult decision to make, but once it was made, the rules were clear.
The exit route is anything but, and perhaps that’s why Mr. Johnson’s statement raised as many questions as it answered.
As we come out of the blockade, we will likely be guided by both our own appetite for risk and a nanny state.
All of us will have to find a new normal and it will take some time to get there.
