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A group of leading UK scientists have insisted that the scientific basis for coronavirus blockade is the work of a large group of experts, and that epidemiologist Prof Neil Ferguson is just one voice among many.
In a letter coordinated by Dr. Thibaut Jombart, associate professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, more than 25 prominent scientists said debates after Ferguson’s “individual error” in which he circumvented the closing rules by receiving Visits to his home from his lover amplified the misconception that only he persuaded the government to change the policy.
Jombart told the BBC Radio 4 Today show that he did not believe Ferguson should have resigned.
“In a time of crisis like this, I think [his actions] confuse the government message, “said Jombart, who is also a tenured professor at Imperial College.”[But] I think he is one of the best epidemiologists in the world. We need all the assets that we can use. So i think i should [not have resigned]. “
He added: “He is a very experienced modeler, so I’d rather have him on Sage [the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies], as part of the information of the decision making process “.
Jombart said that he and a large number of colleagues had advised the government from the beginning and had recommended a closure since early March. Initially, the government took a less stringent set of measures like Sweden’s, which only implemented a total blockade on March 23.
“We wanted to dispel the opinion that the architect of the blockade, as he has been called, made this information on his own,” Jombart said, adding that he should not have resigned after the Daily Telegraph broke the news of his breach of the blocking rules.
When asked if the quarantine of all UK arrivals was taken into account when the closure was implemented, Jompart said: “That would be a drop in the ocean … By the time we entered the closure, there were clearly thousands of cases in the country and it was no longer possible to contain it. “
Jombart said there was a scientific consensus that the blockade had a strong impact in reducing the rate of coronavirus transmission.
According to the Imperial College model, in the worst case scenario without the implementation of wide-ranging measures to reduce transmission, 510,000 people in the UK could die. This unpublished study led to the government’s volte-face, but has since come under increasing scrutiny.
In the letter, the scientists said that while Ferguson was undoubtedly an influential scientist, the collaborative scientific effort to inform government decision-making was quite different than suggested.
“At the time of writing, Sage lists 56 participants and receives input from a much larger number of advisers through dedicated subcommittees,” the statement read. “The modeling-focused subcommittee has so far included 44 contributors, most of whom are independent academic researchers, who represent a large number of groups across the country and their continued work.
Therefore, any scientific advice to the UK government, including the advice that preceded the blockade, is the result of the work of hundreds of researchers across the UK.
“In early March 2020, the emerging consensus among scientists involved in this consultation across the country was that Sars-Cov-2 was widely circulating in the UK, was capable of causing major hospitalizations and deaths, and that in the absence of With drastic social consequences distancing the measures, the health system would quickly be overwhelmed in the same way it had been in northern Italy at the time. Although new studies and data have emerged since then, this consensus has not changed. “
