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The true number of coronavirus deaths in nursing homes in England and Wales may be as high as 6,000, according to statistical analysis by a well-respected health consultant, suggesting that the government is seriously underestimating the crisis in residential care.
Candesic’s estimate, which informs many of the sector’s operators, is much higher than ministers have recognized, because it includes people who have died in care homes or in their own homes, but whose deaths were not attributed to Covid-19, in part because almost none were tested for the disease.
Matt Hancock, the health secretary, admitted Friday that he had a “high degree of confidence” that the number and proportion of Covid-19 deaths in nursing homes was higher than reported.
In the latest official figures for the week ending April 3, the number of registered people who died in care homes was 3,769, a 50 percent increase from the 2,489 recorded the previous week.
The Office for National Statistics has said the increase in deaths is highly unusual and has begun working with the Quality of Care Commission, the industry regulator and Public Health England to reveal whether doctors do not mention the coronavirus in death certificates in large quantities.
Of 1,280 additional care home deaths recorded that week, only 175 death certificates mentioned coronaviruses. In contrast, almost all of the increase in hospital deaths during the same period mentioned coronavirus on death certificates.
The guidance for doctors, revealed by the Good Law Project, a campaign group, showed this week that they don’t have to mention coronavirus on death certificates.
Examining excess deaths in nursing homes throughout the pandemic period, Leonid Shapiro, managing partner of Candesic, estimated that by April 3, 1,900 deaths involved coronaviruses, while the official count was only 217.
Based on this, and the increase in the death rate from the virus since April 3, Dr. Shapiro calculated that around 6,000 people could have died of coronavirus in nursing homes by this Friday.
At a Commons health committee session on Friday, Mr. Hancock acknowledged official Covid-19 death rates in nursing homes that we cut.
When asked by former health secretary Jeremy Hunt if he thought “it is likely that less than 2 percent of our Covid deaths are in nursing homes,” Mr. Hancock replied, “No, and the figure you mention is a figure of a couple of weeks ago. “
He added: “I can say with a high degree of confidence that the number and proportion are higher than what you say and I will wait for the official statistics to understand it.”
A similar underreporting of coronaviruses is seen on death certificates in the numbers of people dying in their own homes, suggesting that the actual number of Covid-19 deaths across the UK could be twice the official daily count of the hospital death count, which reached 14,576 on Friday.
Dr. Shapiro said: “The sharp increase in deaths in the community has not been linked to the coronavirus, but it should have been.”
He added: “It is unlikely that we will get a true picture of deaths in the community or that we can prevent them until mass testing is done. Although this is difficult in people’s homes, it should be possible in nursing homes.
“Given the contagious nature of the virus, even one case is too much and could spell disaster for most nursing home residents,” he said.
Responding to the analysis showing a much higher number of deaths in nursing homes than officially declared, the Department of Health and Social Assistance said that each death in a nursing home was a “tragedy”.
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The department added: “It is important that we have the best possible reliable data to know how many deaths there are, wherever they occur. We are currently working with the CQC and other organizations to understand how best to provide up-to-date information on deaths in nursing homes and elsewhere. “
The CQC began collecting information on the number of deaths in nursing homes, but only as of April 6 and its data has not been published.
Kate Terroni, chief inspector of adult social care at CQC, said: “We are working with ONS and Public Health England to see how to provide a more detailed and timely picture of the impact of Covid-19 on adult social care.”
The CQC had suspended nursing home inspections during the coronavirus crisis, and several of its employees were relocated.
