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The peak of coronavirus cases in Wales has come “much earlier” than expected, the Welsh medical director confirmed.
Dr. Frank Atherton, speaking to the press on Thursday from the Welsh government headquarters in Cathays Park, Cardiff, said this was due to government action and public adherence to it.
Public Health Wales announced that more than 900 people have now died in Wales after testing positive for Covid-19 and there are close to 10,000 cases overall.
Dr. Atherton predicted in early March, when Wales was seeing its first cases of infection, that we would see an increase in cases in April, a possible peak towards May / June and a recession again in July / August.
Speaking on Thursday, he said, “When we think about where we were [in early March] It seemed like we were in a period of exponential growth.
“We think the peak would have been in May, June, or July, somewhere within that range.”
“We were talking at the time about ‘flattening the curve’ so as not to exceed capacity on the NHS. In fact, our measures in Wales and the UK have done more than flattening the curve. They have completely crushed it.
“So the numbers are much, much less than we expected, and that’s why, we think, the peak has come earlier.”
This map shows the council areas that recorded the most cases on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays
However, he admitted that by flattening the curve there was a risk of a “resurgence” of the virus if the restrictions were lifted too soon.
“The model suggests that if we open our measures too early in the UK, we could see a second big wave that could continue in the fall period, which would be very bad news because it is time for the regular flu virus begins to circulate. “
“Honestly, we don’t know if there will be a second, third or fourth peak, but we have to assume at this point that the disease will return.”
According to the latest NHS figures, the number of patients at the hospital with coronavirus in Wales dropped to less than 1,000 for the first time in more than three weeks on Wednesday.
There are also 101 patients with Covid-19 in hospital intensive care units, the lowest number since early April.
And of the 386 critical care beds available, more than half (57%) of the beds are empty, and field hospitals are hardly used throughout Wales.
When asked if it was time to start elective and non-urgent procedures again on the Welsh NHS, due to the fact that critical care capacity seems to be handling so well, Dr. Atherton said: “She is one of my biggest concerns that there is ‘hidden damage’ in the system.
“Now there is a discussion with the executive directors of the local health boards and, from my perspective, the medical directors and the public health directors, about how we can ‘reopen’ and rejuvenate the NHS and recover services that are no longer being used. they lend in volume what we are used to. “
Dr. Atherton added that when closure restrictions are eased, there should be a focus on community policing and case tracking and tracing.
“We need a better understanding of how the virus moves in our populations and in those closed environments [of hospitals and care homes],” he said.
“We need a clear tracing and tracing model, using a combination of digital media and old-fashioned public health footwear leather and contact tracing.
“We need to look at other countries how they are lifting the measures.”
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