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The UK is still optimistic about reaching a trade deal with the EU, but warned that the talks could collapse in June unless Brussels abandons its demands for a common fisheries policy and fair conditions, a source close to the negotiating team said. from United Kingdom.
The source said that in the talks last week, only “limited progress had been made in reducing the gaps between us,” but there was “confidence that progress can be made fairly quickly.”
The two sides will have to move closer to an agreement before a high-level meeting between ministers scheduled for June if the UK stays at the negotiating table.
Boris Johnson is expected to take a more active role in trying to help unlock the talks if that date approaches with no progress.
The source close to the UK negotiating team said last week’s conversations, conducted via video conference, worked well, but that it was more difficult to build a personal relationship when communicating remotely.
He said he was “pretty positive” about the likelihood of a trade deal before the end of the year, when the UK transition period ends, echoing the prediction of Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove said the chances of a deal were “definitely better than two to one.”
In response to those claims about the possibilities of a Brexit deal, an EU diplomat said the UK was betting high risk.
“Everyone knows that the UK is the world of gamblers, but gambling alone will not result in a trade deal. The continent is as Covid-engulfed as the UK, so I would not trust leaders to have much time to attend to British fantasy, “said the diplomat. “Recovery comes first and last, and a trade deal with the UK is, of course, a necessary element, but not one that needs to be urgently addressed.”
A second EU diplomat said: “If No 10 does not change its negotiating approach, we will most likely see a scenario without an agreement. So we take this statement [on the positive chances of a deal by Michael Gove] as a positive sign that the UK will change its negotiating stance and start talking on the basis of the joint political declaration, ”the document agreed between the EU and Boris Johnson last October.
However, the UK source said: “What is holding us back is the EU’s insistence on additional provision, in particular the area of a level playing field, governance aspects and, of course, there is no meeting of minds on fishing If they continue to insist on their position on a level playing field, and on continuing the common fisheries policy, for example, we will never accept that.
“Draw your own conclusion from that, but I hope they keep going. There are some fundamentals that we are not going to change, that we are not going to continue, because they are not so much negotiating positions as what an independent state does. ”
He added: “I’m sure we will get through that … but there will probably have to be a bit more noise before we get to that point.”
Johnson has faced calls to consider asking for an extension of the transition period to avoid the UK having to trade on World Trade Organization terms with the EU from the end of the year. However, No. 10 has said that an extension is not under negotiation.
The UK source also said that “it was still entirely possible to conclude the negotiations on the timetable that has been described.”
EU officials do not share London’s optimism. Last week, the bloc’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier accused the UK government of running around the clock for “slow[ing] below discussions on important areas. “
An EU source said: “We are not really making any progress,” describing the latest series of talks as “a round stopped.” While this limited progress would not be surprising in “normal” trade talks, the accelerated schedule and the political attention that the coronavirus is consuming have raised doubts in Brussels about reaching an agreement by the end of the year.
“If we had all the time in the world, I really wouldn’t be concerned about that,” the source said. “But we are already [almost] in May now. Ratification will be extremely complex at the end of the year, so we need more time. We cannot plan the swift ratification that we expected, for many reasons, and everyone is distracted. “
Brussels officials also perceive a lack of high-level political commitment in the negotiations.
The EU has accused Johnson of backing down on promises to maintain common standards on environment, health and workers’ rights, the so-called level playing field. Under pressure from coastal member states like France, Ireland, Belgium and the Netherlands, Barnier has also insisted that there will be no trade agreement without an agreement on fishing rights.
Meanwhile, in Northern Ireland, the EU-UK specialized committee for the region met for the first time on Thursday. DUP MP Ian Paisley accused the group of being “full of officials” and bureaucrats. He said: “They are not getting the core of business needs.”
The committee will be central to the future of Northern Ireland as it is mandated to work and recommend what controls should be in place in the Irish Sea when the transition period ends in January.
Industry leaders in the region warned that Brexit checks would be imposed on companies struggling to survive in the Covid crisis, and that the government needed to be transparent and direct with them.
Aodhán Connolly, director of the Northern Ireland Retail Consortium, said “there couldn’t be a Mary pass, no gentlemen’s deal” on Brexit checks and that details needed to be “finalized” soon to give companies a chance to prepare. .
