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The coronavirus pandemic has seen an unprecedented number of voters register to cast their vote by mail, raising the very real possibility that we may not know who won the US election for several days.
In 2016, Donald Trump was declared the winner of Wisconsin at 7.29am UK time, the day after the polls closed, which put him over the magical 270 Electoral College votes he needed.
If the contest between Trump and Joe biden is not close and one of the candidates wins comfortably, we could expect to know the result at a similar time.
But this is expected to be a longer election. Postal ballots take longer to count, and if battle states can’t be called, or there are legal challenges to state counts, we could have a long night (or a week).
When will we know
We will get early results after the polls have closed in each state, which will give an indication of the position of the candidates.
However, they may not include mail-in ballots as this depends on when officials can start counting them.
Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Washington are holding elections by mail. This is when the polls close elsewhere:
So how do you win the presidential election?
In reality, Americans do not vote directly for who they want to be president and vice president.
Instead, they vote for “electors,” members of the Electoral College, who endorse their choice of candidate for those roles.
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Each state has a number of voters according to its population.
California, which has a population of nearly 40 million, has 55 votes in the Electoral College, while North Dakota, home to some 762,000 people, has just three votes.
There are a total of 538 total voters: 435 representatives of Congress, 100 senators and three additional voters from the District of Columbia.
Most states operate on a winner-take-all system, so if a candidate wins the most votes in a state, they get all the votes from the Electoral College.
The first candidate to 270 votes of the Electoral College wins the presidency.
The only exceptions are in Maine and Nebraska.
Maine has four electoral votes: two are awarded to the winner of the statewide ballot and one vote each in each of its two electoral districts. Nebraska has five votes. Again, two are awarded to the state winner and one to each of their three constituencies.
The US Constitution does not require voters to follow the popular vote, but many US states have laws that require them to do so.
In 2016, we had the “cheating voters” phenomenon, challenging those who pledged to vote. Two defected from Trump and five from Clinton, and all voted for people who were not on the ballot.
In July, the US Supreme Court ruled that voters must follow the popular vote in states that have passed laws requiring them to do so.
What should we look for?
Most states in the US tend to lean toward either Republicans or Democrats.
But in every presidential election, there are about 12 states that tip the balance towards one candidate, these are known as battlefield states or swing states.
This year, Sky News believes that the 12 key states that will decide the race for the White House are Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Texas, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
There are 195 Electoral College votes in these 12 crucial states. Minnesota and Nevada are currently defended by Democrats, and the other 10 by Republicans.
Assuming traditionally Democratic states vote the same way as expected, Joe Biden would stick with 216 votes and would need another 54 to get to 270.
Trump defends 127 votes, again assuming previously Republican states stay the same. That means you need 143 more to win.
Keep an eye on where those 12 decisive states are headed, in particular Florida, Georgia, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
What has changed this time?
The pandemic means that millions of Americans have chosen to avoid long lines to vote and have opted for mail-in ballots.
The huge increase in the use of mail-in ballots means this time around the candidate who leads from the start is much more likely to be left behind once subsequent votes are counted.
Then there’s the likely delay in the vote count.
Some states accept mail-in ballots postmarked on Election Day but received later, including the battlefield states of North Carolina and Texas.
And simply checking the ballots, requiring someone to match the signature of the affidavit on the outside of the envelope with that of the voter on the record, adds time to the process.
In states that lean heavily one way, such as California for Democrats or Utah for Republicans, a delay in getting final results probably won’t prevent the presidential race from being called in those states.
But the battle states, including Pennsylvania and Michigan, have relaxed the rules on mail-in ballots due to unprecedented demand. This means that we could see delays, and a candidate may not be able to accumulate 270 votes in the electoral college for some time.
Many states allow the vote verification process to begin before Election Day, as long as ballots are not counted and totals are not released before polls close. This could help speed up the process.
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How long could the delay be?
Since some states allow votes to be counted even if they are received after November 3, this year’s elections could be extended.
Each state must begin certifying its results as of November 10, although that could be delayed if there is a recount. All states, except California, must have certified their result before December 8.
Those voters then cast their votes on December 14 and sent them to Washington DC.
The last time the result was not clear? In 2000, George W Bush was confirmed as the election winner following a Supreme Court ruling to end the recount in Florida a month after the election. The state had been called upon by both Bush and Al Gore at various points.
Trump has declined to say whether he will accept the election result and has hinted that the result might have to be resolved by the Supreme Court.
He has also repeatedly claimed that increased voting by mail will lead to widespread fraud. There is no evidence to support this. Trump has also called for the federal court system to ensure that the winner of the election is called hours after the polls close, even though the rules allow mail-in ballots to be counted days later.
A close count in key states on the battlefield could result in litigation over voting and counting procedures.
Those cases could eventually make it to the US Supreme Court as they did in 2000, with George W. Bush prevailing over Gore by just 537 votes in Florida.
The confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett as a Supreme Court Justice has created a conservative 6-3 majority in the United States’ highest court, which could favor Trump if he is required to intervene in a contested election.
Election coverage of Sky News in the USA
What if there is a tie?
In the unlikely event that both candidates end up with 269 votes in the Electoral College, it is up to Congress to decide who is in the White House. This is known as a “contingent election” and also applies if neither of you can get 270 votes.
The House would vote for the president. Each of the 50 states would have only one vote out of the three candidates who received the most popular votes. It would take a majority of 26 to win.
Note that the Democrats currently have the majority in the House, but they are all in the November 3 election.
The Senate would decide who is the vice president. Each senator would have a vote on the two candidates with the most popular votes, with a majority of 51 required to win.
Republicans are currently in control of the Senate, but again a third are in the election, so that could change.
Those decisions would have to be completed before January 20, when the Constitution determines that the term of the current president ends.
Under the Presidential Succession Act, if Congress has not yet determined a presidential or vice-presidential winner by then, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, would act as interim president.
There have only been three contingent elections: in 1800, 1824 and 1836.
What else is at stake?
It’s not just the presidential and vice-presidential races that are at stake, although most of the attention is focused on Trump and Biden.
Voters will also decide on members of Congress and some of the Senate seats will also be available for elections on November 3.
The 435 seats in the House are being contested. Democrats are currently in control of the House with 232 seats and will seek to maintain control. Republicans occupy 197, there is a libertarian and currently five vacancies after resignations or deaths of representatives.
About 33 of the Senate seats will also be contested in 2020. Republicans currently control the Senate, with 53 seats, and Democrats have 45. Currently, two independent senators are on the side of the Democrats. In the event of a tie in the Senate, the vice president tips the balance towards his party.
