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Early indications are that the polls have been proven wrong, but Joe Biden has the momentum going forward.
The former vice president regained some of the states lost to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and may have scored a historic victory in at least one previously red state.
The election has yet to be decided, but there are some trends in voting patterns that have become apparent.
1. The blue wall has been rebuilt
Biden won Wisconsin and Michigan, two of the states that fell to Donald Trump in 2016.
They are two of the so-called “blue wall” states, the group of northern states that have strongly supported the Democrats in many recent elections.
Pennsylvania is yet to be declared, but there are signs that Biden could close the gap with Trump.
It was the turn in 2016 of many voters in those states to support Trump that gave him the keys to the White House, and many blue-collar voters sold their vision for America First and pledged to revitalize America’s steel and coal industries. United.
In many parts of America’s Rust Belt, in states like Ohio, Indiana and, to some extent, Michigan, Trump’s support remained.
But changes in levels of support elsewhere meant that Biden was able to take the key states that may be enough to see him take the presidency.
2. The polite vote counted
Across all undecided states, in areas with higher levels of education, there was an increase in support for the Democratic candidate in 2020 compared to 2016
In general, the reverse is true for those with lower educational levels.
All areas with high voter turnout without college education have seen a surge in support for Trump.
Manual workers, especially in northern industrial areas, were previously viewed as their “base”, but the latest data shows that this seems to have become even more the case.
The general trend underscores the growing polarization in American politics and the divisions in American society between those with different levels of education and often different values.
In places like Arizona, areas with higher levels of education may have made a difference.
Trump occupied the state in 2016, even though his margin was the smallest since Republican Bob Dole’s defeat to President Bill Clinton, but in 2020, there are signs that he may have changed.
Counties like Pima, which includes Tucson and the University of Arizona, saw a significant increase in Democratic support among college-educated voters.
The county has seen an influx in recent years of better-educated Americans, drawn by a growing economy, high-tech industries, and away from states like California for lower prices.
32% of the county’s residents now hold titles, the same as the US Pima national average is 92% urban.
3. Greater division between urban and rural areas
In several of the swing states, there are signs that Joe Biden saw a higher share of the vote, compared to Hillary Clinton in 2016, among those living in urban areas.
Urban areas sometimes have higher proportions of college-educated and minority voters, groups that used to support Clinton previously, but Biden saw more of them supporting him this time in states like Georgia, Minnesota and North Carolina.
Even in states like Ohio and Iowa, which Biden lost, Democratic support increased in urban areas.
4. Retirees looking for the sun may have abandoned the commander-in-chief
Sky News reported ahead of the election on signs that senior communities in Florida may be less willing to vote for the man they helped take office in 2016.
In the end, that’s exactly what happened, as Trump saw a loss of support in areas with a larger population over 65.
The same was true in Arizona, another key battlefield and a state with a larger-than-average retiree population. .
There was anecdotal evidence before the election that some older people were considering changing their vote to a Democrat, and to a man who might be the oldest president in history, because they were eager to leave a legacy for their grandchildren.
The elderly, thousands of whom have died this year in the US from the coronavirus, may also have been more concerned about the pandemic and voted for a candidate who vowed to take it more seriously.
However, this did not happen across the board, and in many of the states where Trump did well in 2016, especially in the North, there were signs that older voters backed him in greater numbers, despite the high levels of COVID-19 infection. .
5. The Latino vote swings the sun belt
Democrats had been optimistic that they would at least choose the changing state of Florida, if not the steadfast red state of Texas, which according to polls could be on its way.
In the end, they didn’t win any. Behind the losses there may be a dramatic shift toward Donald Trump among the Latino population.
In Florida, 48% of Latinos supported Donald Trump.
Democrats on the ground say they believe the Latino vote was key to Trump’s success in the state.
Bradley Jackson, a Democratic activist in Florida, told Sky News that he could see the effect while campaigning.
He said: “One of the main things that I saw was in Miami Dade County – which is a Democratic stronghold – that the Hispanic population, mainly Cuban and Venezuelan, who have had socialist governments for so long, have taken that message that the GOP [Republican Party] “he said, calling Joe Biden a socialist and used it to convince people that this agenda is what is happening.”
5. ‘Shy Trumpers’ came out
Many commentators have said that the polls may have been wrong due to a phenomenon called Shy Trumper – voters who didn’t tell pollsters that they planned to vote for Trump, and then they did.
Many of the charts above show that in various groups, support for Trump increased.
In several states, notably the former landmark states like Ohio, and also Iowa and Indiana, which were won by Barack Obama in 2008, Trump’s vote share held up.
Given that turnout is forecast to be the highest in history in the US elections, it is clear that Trump was backed by a large number of Americans.
Former Republican adviser Lanhee Chen told Sky News: “Biden was winning by a much larger margin. Polls are a reflection of assumptions about who will vote and pollsters should do their best to guess who will participate on the day of the elections. elections”. .
“Clearly what Trump has been able to do in these states is create an electorate that is more favorable to him. He is generating voters who will support him and demotivate those who would oppose him.”
