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It is an American election like no other. Rarely has the stakes for America felt so high after four years of Donald Trump’s chaotic rule and a summer of civil unrest sparked by racial justice protests. And it has unfolded in the context of a pandemic that has claimed more than 225,000 American lives and made normal campaigns not only difficult, but dangerous as well.
But finally, election day has arrived. Here’s what you need to know about the night itself, and perhaps the days after.
When will we get a result?
It depends. If there is a landslide for Joe Biden (a Trump equivalent is highly unlikely, according to polls), there could be a fairly quick statement Tuesday night. Although even that could be tempered by the American media chastised by the 2016 result and reluctant to appear to call things quickly. If the vote is closer, the result may not be clear until Wednesday. If it’s really close, then the mail-in ballot count and potential lawsuits in key states could stretch to days or even weeks and trigger a constitutional crisis.
When does the first key result arrive?
The first important indicator will be Florida, where the polls close completely at 8pm EST (some close earlier). The state is a vital battlefield for both candidates. If Biden performs strongly here and achieves an early victory, Democrats will have high hopes for a decisive victory across the country. If it’s close, things can take longer. If Trump wins the state, then the whole contest is up for grabs.
Tom McCarthy takes you through other key states that you need to pay attention to overnight here.
What are the oscillating states?
With Biden’s lead increasing in the final weeks of the campaign, the list of states at stake that Democrats want to take from Republicans has grown. Suddenly Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, and North Carolina are on the list. But the original main battlefield remains the states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, plus the ever-present swaying state of Florida.
Why doesn’t the popular vote decide the winner?
The United States votes by state in the electoral college, not by popular vote. Each state is worth a certain number of electors who then meet in the “electoral college.” Whoever reaches 270 voters wins the White House. States are weighted roughly by size: California has 55 voters compared to Vermont’s three, for example. But the vagaries of voting patterns and demographics mean that it is possible to lose the popular vote and win the electoral college. Trump did this in 2016 and George W Bush did it in 2000.
What is the meaning of high participation?
That also depends. One argument is that high turnout favors Democrats, as it could be driven by demographics that tend toward Democrats but historically low turnout, such as youth. Furthermore, it means that Republican efforts to suppress the vote may not be working. But in a deeply divided country, 2020 could simply be a “grassroots election” in which victory goes to the side resulting in its own mass supporters, not appealing to undecided voters. In that case, a high turnout does not predict too much who is winning, only that the electorate is highly motivated.
When are postal ballots counted?
Due to the coronavirus pandemic and security concerns around voting in person, millions of ballots have been published in 2020. But few things in the American election are simple. The timing of votes by mail varies greatly from state to state, and even county to county within some states. Some allow ballots received after Election Day to be counted, others do not. That means that in some states, the final vote count may not arrive until days after the election. In a landslide, that might not matter. But in a closer election, it could mean no winner is declared on election night. It also opens the door to potential lawsuits, as each side can seek to obtain ballots for their disqualified opponents. Those lawsuits could end up in the supreme court, as it did in 2000 in Florida, where a newly minted conservative majority is likely to be Trump friendly terrain.
Could the Senate change hands and why does it matter?
Yes, it could. What seemed like a Democratic dream just a few months ago has become a definite possibility as Democrats have risen and put disputed US upper house seats that would normally seem like lost causes. That is vital. The United States system of government is designed as a series of checks and balances and a power that is divided between the president, Congress, and the courts. If Democrats take over the Senate while still occupying the lower house of the House of Representatives, then the legislation becomes much easier to pass. Republicans have controlled the Senate recently and have shown just how powerful a hurdle it can be. A Democratic victory there will crush that lockdown and give President Joe Biden a much freer hand.
What Senate seats could they change?
The list is long as Democrats seek a net gain of four seats to win control. The easiest victories for Democrats are in Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Montana, and Georgia. Some outliers could occur in South Carolina, Texas, and even Kansas, where long-term deals have suddenly become a little less unlikely. But Democrats also have to defend their own turf and are likely to lose a Senate seat in Alabama. They are also on the defensive in Michigan.
Will the house change?
That is highly unlikely. Following a resounding victory in the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats have firm control of the House. No matter what any Republican may say, the chance of that being overturned on Tuesday is extremely small. Instead, the party seems willing to maintain its control by winning even more seats.
What would be the biggest shock of the night?
For Republicans, holding on to states like Wisconsin and Michigan would be a huge achievement and signal a repeat of the 2016 poll errors. They have also had eyes on stealing Nevada from the Democrats, something that would send shockwaves through the race. . For Democrats, the big windfall victories could come in the south, where North Carolina and even Georgia seem close at hand. Texas could also, perhaps, finally turn blue in what would be considered an electoral earthquake. If any of that happens, it portends a Biden landslide.
Are the polls in the same place as in 2016?
On one level, yes. Biden, like Clinton, has a solid advantage domestically over Trump and also in the key states that are needed to win. Almost all polls predict a Biden victory, as they did a Clinton victory, and the election is fought primarily in the same set of key states. But Biden also appears to be in a stronger position. Their lead in national polls is larger, more stable, and so far there have been few signs of a late surge in support among Trump undecided, as was the case in 2016. In 2020, those voters seem to have mostly made up their minds. . . Biden is also seen as a more positive figure than Clinton.
But one key rule remains the same in 2016 and 2020: Only one survey really matters. And that’s the case where Americans cast their actual votes.
