[ad_1]
A record 99.7 million people have already voted before Election Day, which means that the 2020 presidential election that will pit Joe Biden against Donald Trump will be the first in history in which more people vote before Election Day. Election day than on it.
That could lead to some irregularities on election night: Results can come in faster than usual in some places, while they are hugely delayed in others.
A terrible new wave of coronavirus could also slow down voting and counting. And Trump has spent weeks irritating his supporters with false accusations of voter fraud and ballot theft. Unpredictable actions on Election Day by Trump or his representatives could disrupt the process.
U.S. election officials and media organizations that generally call elections on Election Night say the chances are high that the winner of the election will not be clear by midnight Tuesday. That would not be unusual: the count went past midnight in three of the last five elections, in 2000, 2004 and 2016.
On the other hand, we could have a result in the presidential race at the end of the night if either candidate achieves decisive victories in key states. And the data from the huge early voter turnout could provide important information on how the elections are developing.
Here’s a rough guide to how the night might unfold:
6 pm ET (3 pm PT, 11 pm GMT, 10 am AEDT)
The first polls close in most of Indiana Y Kentucky (Both states share time zones). In Indiana, Vigo County on the Illinois border has voted with the winner of the presidential election every time since 1956. But don’t wait for Vigo: Indiana is known for fast cars but slow vote counting.
Kentucky is expected to give fans of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell a chance to toast his re-election. But if McConnell wins reelection, will he return as Majority Leader, or will the Democrats win control of the Senate overnight? It is the largest award in this election after the White House.
7 pm ET (4 pm PT, midnight GMT, 11 am AEDT)
So, things get exciting. The 7pm time sees the closing of most of the polls in the all-important state of Florida, which counts votes quickly, except when it doesn’t. As results begin to come in, seek out electoral experts (here is a twitter list) to start raising eyebrows significantly on whether Trump is matching his 2016 margins in this county or another. This is when Election Night can really start to feel like one way or another, so expect thrills.
And there will be much to see. How is Republican Senator and Trump ally Lindsey Graham doing in South Carolina? Make the first returns of Virginia look good to Trump? Is there any indication of what African American involvement is like in Atlanta and what is going on with those crazy people? Georgia Senate races?
Georgia is one of the “safe” Republican states where Biden appeared to be making headway, according to polls, so the results there could indicate if all of that was a Democratic fantasy. But even though the polls in Georgia close at 7 p.m., don’t expect immediate results, and don’t expect Trump necessarily to hold on to what might seem like an early lead, because Atlanta and its Democrats often report last.
7.30 pm ET (4.30 pm PT, 12.30 am GMT, 11.30 am AEDT)
There is no turning back now. While trying to keep an eye on Florida, prepare for a ton of returns of North Carolina, which also counts your first ballots quickly and tends to report them first. Be careful: Many Democrats voted early in North Carolina, as elsewhere, and what might seem like an early lead for Biden in the state could go flat like a cheap beach ball. North Carolina is a place where Democrats could get really greedy, wanting not just an unexpected victory in the presidential race, but a reversed Senate seat, with Democrat Cal Cunningham taking on incumbent Republican Thom Tillis. Or Trump could just repeat his 2016 win here and wear Tillis in his wrap skirts, causing a barely noticeable spike in the smile on McConnell’s face in Kentucky.
Too: Ohio. Longing Democrats recall when this state used to be at stake in presidential elections, and over the course of 2020 some of those old sparks have started to shine once more. A defeat for Trump here would be a total disaster for him. But don’t expect any kind of simple early results. A Biden lead in early voting (Ohio has weeks to process initial ballots and is expected to report them immediately) could succumb to a sudden surge from Trump, and then everyone could end up looking to Cleveland, whose slowly reported votes could make. make the race look tighter and tighter. This is the drama you came for, enjoy.
8 pm ET (5 pm PT, 1 am GMT, 12 pm AEDT)
Find an armrest and grab it. By now, in fact, a lot will be happening, and some of the historical contours of the race will be on display. The challenge will be to recognize them.
And new results will come. Two states, Michigan Y Texas, will close some voting centers, and the rest will close at 9 pm. If Biden seems close in Texas – [did we just type that?] – hello, story. Also look at the Senate race in Michigan, where Democratic incumbent Gary Peters could run into trouble. Speaking of the Senate, does the in-jeopardy Democrat Doug Jones have a chance to keep his seat in Alabama? And does Republican incumbent Susan Collins finally lose Maine? A loss to Collins would catapult Democrats toward their dream of a Senate majority, and might even erase that smile in Kentucky.
And then this Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania closes its polls at 8 pm. But the outcome of the elections in Pennsylvania will not be known by 8 pm In fact, it is quite possible that the outcome of the elections in Pennsylvania will not be known for days. That’s because Philadelphia, the largest city in the state, with Democrats popping out of your ears, could take days to count your mail-in ballots, according to officials there.
The slow count in Pennsylvania is the key to one of the most plausible and alarming scenarios of an election night collapse, in which Trump takes advantage of a “red mirage” in the state to declare victory, in an election that later it was revealed that Biden had. won. Here’s an interactive explainer on how all that could turn out.
Keep an eye on Pennsylvania, but don’t hold your breath.
9 pm ET (6 pm PT, 2 am GMT, 1 pm AEDT)
If you haven’t managed to get any kind of psychoactive kick on election night up to this point, it is within the next hour, we predict, that the power of democracy will begin to take effect.
We will look back at Florida, at North Carolina, at Georgia, at Ohio. But then we’ll turn around and wham – Arizona, who is used to early voting and counts his votes quickly, will give us some results. Note that in the past, Arizona’s initial result has seemed more Republican than the final result. Democrats are counting on a Senate pickup here with candidate Mark Kelly, who has actually launched rockets into space.
(Savor for a moment the fact that Arizona switching to Biden, with Trump controlling Pennsylvania, is one of the simplest ways the race could end in a tie at Electoral College 269-269.)
Then change channel to Colorado, where we can expect an early result. Democrats are also depending on a Senate pickup here. In New MexicoCan Trump keep it closer than the eight points he beat Hillary Clinton by in 2016? And focus on Omaha, Nebraska, where Biden hopes to get an electoral college vote in a really red state.
At last, there is Wisconsin. Democracy is pretty broken in Wisconsin, with endless voting lines and shameful Republican acts to prevent Democratic and minority voters from casting their votes. Look for a strong result early for the Republican side of wealthy Milwaukee suburbs, where voting really works. The city of Milwaukee will take longer.
10 pm ET (7 pm PT, 3 am GMT, 2 pm AEDT)
We have no idea what kind of action will be in the rearview mirror at this point, maybe we already feel like a winner? – but the coming states are clearly visible: Utah, where Trump’s margin will be of interest; Nevada, where it looks like Biden might have a surprisingly difficult career on his hands; Y Iowa.
The Iowa results must be handled with a pincer. Like Ohio, it used to be on the line for Democrats, and some wonder if it won’t return to the blue fold in 2020. Such a result would herald a disastrous night for Trump, and could well be a fantasy.
But what does not seem like a total fantasy is an upset of the Republican incumbent in the Senate office in Iowa, Joni Ernst, whose loss would be a big boost for Democratic plans in the Senate. But be careful: Ernst fell behind in Iowa’s first results in 2014, only to come back and win. So don’t plan to go to bed at 11pm ET knowing who won in Iowa. That would be crazy!
11 pm ET (8 pm PT, 4 am GMT, 3 pm AEDT)
Polls close west – in California, Oregon Y Washington (Y Hawaii). If the presidential race is not closed, the closing of the polls in these states will produce a final convocation of the race.
It is unrealistic to expect the annus horribilis of 2020 to come to an end with a clean result in the presidential race on election night … and still.
Consider this: In 2008, Fox News called for Barack Obama’s presidential race at 11 pm sharp. In 2012, the Associated Press declared Obama the winner at 11:38 p.m. ET. Even in 2016, when the Trump-Clinton race was too close to convene on election night, the Associated Press called Trump on Wednesday at 2:29 a.m. ET.
The writing could be on the wall right now. Or something unusually crazy could have happened. Or the entire election story could be circling Philadelphia like a drowning bug circling in a drain.
1 am ET (10 pm PT, 6 am GMT, 5 pm AEDT)
At this late hour on the east coast, if you’re still awake, it’s probably not because you’re wondering how the elections turned out in Alaska. (Or maybe you’re waking up in London? If you really live in Alaska, write to us about what’s happening there.)
By now, wherever you live, the night has revealed some great secrets, and you are now pondering what it could mean for the country, for your family, for you, for tomorrow. Good night and good luck.
• Keep reading: What if there is no election result on November 3? Experts explain what comes next
[ad_2]
