A Rehab Support worker reviews patient notes when the first patients are admitted to the NHS Seacole Center in Headley Court, Surrey, a disused military hospital, which developed during the coronavirus pandemic.
Victoria Jones | PA Images via Getty Images
Scientists have said the UK government must prepare for a possible new wave of Covid-19 infections that may be more severe than the first, warning that the country could see nearly 120,000 more coronavirus deaths this winter.
In a report released Tuesday, an advisory group of 37 experts from the Academy of Medical Sciences emphasized that “intense preparation” was urgently needed for the rest of July and August to reduce the risk that the National Health Service would be overwhelmed this winter.
Their model suggests that Covid-19 infections in the UK will increase again in the fall and peak in January and February, the busiest time of year for the NHS.
In the worst-case scenario, experts said there could be an additional 119,900 hospital deaths this winter, at least double the first wave.
The models do not consider the use of medications, treatments or possible vaccines. It also excludes deaths in nursing homes and the community.
To date, the UK has recorded more than 291,000 coronavirus cases, with 44,915 related deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
The report “Preparing for a Challenging Winter 2020/2021” was requested by Patrick Vallance, the UK government’s chief scientific adviser, to model a “worse” “reasonable” scenario.
“The model suggests that deaths could be higher with a new wave of Covid-19 this winter, but the risk of this happening could be reduced if we take immediate action,” Stephen Holgate, respiratory scientist at the Southampton University Hospital Foundation NHS Foundation Trust said in the report.
“With a relatively low number of Covid-19 cases at the moment, this is a critical opportunity to help us prepare for the worst that winter can bring us,” he added.
Holgate, who chaired the report, said the findings were not a prediction of what is likely to happen, but a scenario of what could happen if the virus is allowed to rise and little is done to protect the NHS and social care services. .
‘Losing profit’
The report calls for a public information campaign, a reorganization of health and welfare staff facilities to ensure Covid-19 free zones, and increased capacity of the country’s “test, trace and isolate” program.
It also says that the UK government should consider a “comprehensive, near real-time surveillance system of the entire population to monitor and manage a winter wave.”
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaks during a daily briefing to update on the outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), at 10 Downing Street in London, Britain, on June 3, 2020.
Andrew Parsons | 10 Downing St | via Reuters
Health experts have previously said they expect colder winter weather conditions to trigger more intense transmission of Covid-19 infection, and said the disease was “highly likely” to show a seasonal pattern similar to other coronaviruses.
In winter, people tend to spend more time indoors in groups, with less ventilation and less personal space than in summer.
Respiratory infections, like coronaviruses, are transmitted by droplets that are released when a person coughs or sneezes. And, health experts say colder, drier winter conditions strongly affect the spread of flu-like illness.
The World Health Organization said last week that it was also reviewing new evidence on whether the coronavirus can spread through particles in the air.
“Every winter we see an increase in the number of people admitted to the hospital and in the number of people dying in the UK,” said Anne Johnson, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at University College London and vice president of the Academy of Medical Sciences. in the report
“This is due to a combination of seasonal infections like the flu and the effects of colder weather, for example on heart and lung conditions,” Johnson continued. “This winter we have to take into account the probability of another wave of coronavirus infections and the continuing impacts of the first wave. We have to be prepared so that we can also experience an influenza epidemic this year.”
The Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, speaks during a daily press conference on the COVID-19 virus at WHO headquarters in Geneva on March 11, 2020.
Fabrice Coffrini | AFP | fake pictures
The WHO previously warned world leaders that the pandemic is not yet under control and is worsening.
Speaking at a press conference from the health agency’s headquarters in Geneva on Monday, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said: “Let me be frank, too many countries are heading in the wrong direction.”
He said many countries seemed to be “losing profits” because proven measures to reduce risk were not implemented or followed.
More than 13.1 million people had contracted the coronavirus as of Tuesday, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, with 573,042 deaths from the virus worldwide.
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