If the last two UFC cards were a showcase for emerging or overlooked talent, then Saturday’s show serves to refocus on some familiar faces.
There are hidden gems in the UFC in the ESPN 14 lineup, but a quick glance reveals four former UFC champions on the card, as well as three fighters who have competed for UFC titles. Not bad for the last event of the promotion’s initial visit to Fight Island.
Robert Whittaker is competing for the first time since he lost his middleweight belt to Israel Adesanya. “The Reaper” is returning from a much-needed break to recover from what he called “burnout,” and now he has to defend his place against recent division rookie Darren Till. It took him up to six fights to get his first shot at the UFC title, could he jump into a meeting with Adesanya (or Paulo Costa) by knocking out Whittaker?
What is at stake in the co-main is not so high, but matchmakers are tilting the proverbial cap to Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira by giving their trilogy a prominent place, as it will be one of the last times. than to see either of them compete. Shogun has acknowledged his occupational mortality several times in recent years, while “Minotouru” has already said he expects Saturday to mark the end of his 19-year career.
Two other former champions are up for grabs, with former heavyweight king Fabricio Werdum welcoming three-time light heavyweight title challenger Alexander Gustafsson to a new division, and inaugural UFC strawweight champion Carla Esparza facing the undefeated Marina Rodríguez.
In other main card action, box aversion heavyweights Paul Craig and Gadzhimurad Antigulov face off, welterweight veteran Alex Oliveira faces Peter Sobotta, and Khamzat Chimaev competes for the second time in 10 days when He meets Cage Warriors’ outstanding debut Rhys McKee in a welterweight bout.
Than: UFC on ESPN 14
Where: Yas Island in Abu Dhabi
When: Saturday, July 25. The entire event will air on ESPN and ESPN +, with preliminaries for eight fights starting at 5 p.m. ET, and the main card for five fights starting at 8 p.m. ET.
Robert Whittaker vs. Darren Till
For many, it will be difficult to shake the image of Robert Whittaker being outmatched and terminated by Israel Adesanya in his most recent fight. Whether it was an uncharacteristic oversight on the part of Whittaker or simply the writing on the wall that a superior champion had arrived, the results left something to be desired.
However, firing Whittaker at this stage in his career would be crazy. At just 29 years old, “The Reaper” is still among the elite pound for pound, even if he left a few pounds of meat in the cage by spending 50 minutes with Yoel Romero. He is incredibly tough and few are better at bouncing back from adversity than Whittaker, which could be his most important attribute when fighting Darren Till.
Until he has the ultimate power of Romero or Adesanya, but he has a complicated and precise hitting style and the ability to thwart opponents. It’s easy to imagine him beating the first two rounds on scorecards with his excellent fighting range, forcing Whittaker to adapt and mount a comeback.
There is plenty of room for drama in the championship rounds and in a battle of wills, I am for the former starter. I can’t see Till dodging Whittaker’s best shots for five rounds, and after the tide turns in the third, Whittaker will find the switch and put Till on the account in the fourth or fifth.
Collect: Whittaker
Mauricio Rua against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
The clear advantage in this match has to go to Shogun. He has always been a better striker and a better athlete than Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and five years after his second meeting there is no reason to suppose that any of that has changed.
One wrinkle to consider is that Nogueira could avoid any aspect of strategy and comes out looking to stand up and hit. Maybe that’s the recipe for him to finally win a win against his lifelong rival. It could also be the recipe for Shogun to knock him unconscious. Regarding Nogueira, his durability has only decreased in the twilight of his career and, although this should be a fun fight, it is Rua who will emerge as the winner. The only difference is that Nogueira might not make it to the scorecards this time.
Collect: Shogun
Fabricio Werdum vs. Alexander Gustafsson
Hi Alexander Gustafsson, welcome to the heavyweight division! Does your first test come from a loss of submission? A former UFC champion with one of the deadliest running games in MMA. Have fun!
Despite Gustafsson’s tough draw for heavyweight debut, I still like his chances. He always seemed like a candidate for weight gain, but it was understandable that he chose not to, as he was always in the 205-pound mix. Like his contemporary Jon Jones, Gustafsson has the size and scope to be with the giants. The power of elimination is another matter, since Gustafsson has always been more of the “death by a dozen cuts” type. That’s not necessarily a bad thing at heavyweight, especially if Gustafsson’s cardio translates. It could be a difficult change of pace for some of the best in the division.
He will have the surprising advantage in this match, although Fabricio Werdum is a skilled Muay Thai fighter. Werdum’s plan will probably be to keep things competitive on his feet as he searches for any opportunity to grab Gustafsson and bring this to the mat. At 42, I don’t trust Werdum to constantly knock Gustafsson down and I see his energy diminish in the second round. That is Gustafsson’s time to start shedding pressure and building a dashboard lead.
Gustafsson by decision.
Collect: Gustafsson
Carla Esparza vs. Marina Rodríguez
It could be argued that Marina Rodríguez’s tough third round against Cynthia Calvillo exposed her shortcomings, but there are a couple of things to keep in mind: 1) Calvillo lost a lot of weight for that fight and you have to believe that the strength advantage benefited her over time it continued and 2) Rodríguez showed impressive survival skills with Calvillo pouring himself on the ground and pound. That should be the kind of fight that makes an athlete better, not worse.
If Rodríguez’s takedown defense had stalled, it will be an easy choice for Carla Esparza. The former UFC champion is a shredder and her first business will be to enter lanky Rodríguez to cut his offensive options. From there, it’s about taking Rodríguez to the cage and getting those precious takedowns.
As I said earlier, I am sure that Rodríguez’s team has emphasized the defense of wrestling. On the feet, he will mend the shorter Esparza with his straight combinations and his lethal rivet set. A lanky scatter won’t be easy, but once Rodríguez shoots those long limbs, he could end up with this one from a distance.
Collect: Rodriguez
Paul Craig vs. Gadzhimurad Antigulov
Hopefully these two fighters don’t neutralize each other to the point where we have the dreaded “jiu-jitsu boys lukewarm kickboxing match”. Paul Craig proved he has a functional hitting game by going the distance with Shogun in his most recent outing, but the real fun here will be seeing how his submission skills compare to Gadzhimurad Antigulov’s.
A fighter who has yet to see the second round since joining the UFC, Antigulov wants to get the action started as soon as possible and the opening moments of this fight could see him doing serious damage to Craig on the clinch and on the mat. But Craig has built a reputation as a comeback artist for a reason, and I hope he takes another rabbit out of his hat. With Antigulov moving away from the top position, Craig will find a way to attack from below or sweep and before Antigulov realizes what is happening, “Bearjew” will have him tapping.
Collect: Craig
Alex Oliveira vs. Peter Sobotta
Alex Oliveira is always a candidate to take the Fight of the Night, especially when paired with someone with a similar skill set. It is unfortunate that Peter Sobotta fights so rarely because he is the type of complete fighter who brings out the best in his opponents and Oliveira should be no different.
Seek to have it contested on all fronts while it lasts, with Oliveira and Sobotta exchanging attacks from a distance and engaging in some fun fights once they take over each other. In fact, I’m predicting this won’t last long as I have this image in my head of Sobotta catching Oliveira with a first-round performance. We will see how it develops.
Collect: Sobotta
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Rhys McKee
This is such an excellent matchup between the prospects, it’s a shame one has to take their first UFC loss. 24-year-old Rhys McKee has all the features of a future favorite with his fan-friendly style, but he comes across a bulldozer here at Khamzat Chimaev.
Taking a second fight in 10 days could actually benefit Chimaev as he barely touched his victory over John Phillips and now is the time for him to keep up the good times. He is an elite fighter and will shoot from the start to set the tone. In terms of physique, he is similar to McKee, but McKee should have the edge on his feet due to his sneaky power.
Unfortunately for McKee, he won’t have a chance to show off much of his busy hitting game. Chimaev will plant it on his butt quickly and end up on the ground in the first or second round.
Collect: Chimaev
Preliminary
Jai Herbert def. Francisco Trinaldo
Nicolas Dalby def. Jesse Ronson
Tom Aspinall def. Jake Collier
Mike Grundy def. Movsar Evloev
Tanner Boser def. Raphael Pessoa
Pannie Kianzad def. Bethe Correia
Ramazan Emeev def. Niklas Stolze
Nathaniel Wood def. John Castaneda
