It has been a while since NATO members Turkey and Greece were at war, but at least do not rule out a skirmish like two. On Monday, the Turkish Ministry of Defense tweeted photos of Turkish warships claiming the oil exploration ship Oruç Reis escort en route to an area of the eastern Mediterranean by both countries. Then on Tuesday, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias said his country would “defend its sovereignty and its rights.”
At the moment this issue – but set in a context of 100-year-old grievances – is the prospect of finding oil as natural gas reserves deep beneath the seabed, as Egypt, Israel and Cyprus have done. In waters about 6,000 feet deep, this is technically difficult and expensive. It is far from clear that the disputed waters are as geologically sound as those near the Nile Delta. (There is also a fantastic project of a sea base pipeline to transport Israeli and Cypriot gas to Europe, which would require permission from the owner of the seabed.)
That, for the moment, the competition contains different interpretations of international law. The main point of controversy is the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. A principle of UNCLOS is that an economic claim of a country at sea and seabed can extend 200 nautical miles beyond the usual limit of 12 nautical miles. But neighboring countries must agree on the dividing line between them – which Israel and Lebanon, for example, do not have. And for countries together for open sea, if less than 212 + 212 = 424 nautical miles apart, they have to negotiate over a midline, as Israel and Cyprus have done.
Welcome to the eastern Mediterranean, where, as the map shows, Turkey is less than 424 nautical miles from Egypt, and Greece is similarly relatively close to Cyprus. That no claim has been clearly cut. An additional difficulty is that Turkey does not recognize that islands have a so-called exclusive economic zone, EEZ, and is so alarmed that the Greek island of Kastellorizo, which is just one kilometer from the Turkish mainland, is included in Greek calculations.
Ankara also does not think that the sovereign state of Cyprus is entitled to anything that requires more than 12-mile territorial waters, instead regarding waters that stretch from the island to the south as Turks, until they become Egyptian. Before the Oruç Journey, gloriously painted in Turkish national colors, towards Greece, he had carried out seismic and other exploratory work in this area.
All these tensions grew for decades as such, but began to escalate at the end of last year when Turkey announced that it had agreed on a maritime border with Libya – both a geographical and legal stretch. Again, the Turkish claim ignored any claim Greece had on the basis of several of its islands, including Crete, where it has a U.S. base.
The agreement also had a substantial geopolitical angle: The internationally recognized Libyan government based in the capital, Tripoli, needed Turkish support to defeat rebel forces advancing from the east, led by Khalifa Haftar, a former CIA operative and one-time general for Moammar Gadhafi, supported by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, France and Russia. From Tripoli’s point of view, the deal was worth it: Ankara provided air defenses and mercenaries. Haftar’s troops were repulsed, though not defeated.
Last month, Egypt made threatening noises about intervention in Libya with its own military, and last week Egypt and Greece announced that they were negotiating an agreement on a maritime border between their countries. Climate-scale and diplomatic issues are hot.
Where it comes from here is unclear. Europe is, now, European. Germany secured a temporary diplomatic break, which failed. On Monday it was announced that France had sent fighter jets to Cyprus. Britain, which has an air base – whose US spy planes oversee events in Syria and Lebanon – and a signal center for signals on the island, appears to be opting for silent diplomacy, as has the United States, which in the past F has delivered -16 fighters to Greece and Turkey. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
Michael (Mike) Richard PompeoEngel: IG report shows Pompeo’s sham ‘use of emergency statement in arms sales Overnight Defense: Trump shoved to restore full National Guard funding | Watchdog fails Pompeo at civilian risk of Saudi arms sales Pelosi over ‘disruptive situation’ in Hong Kong: ‘The world sees’ MORE is scheduled to meet Friday with his Greek counterpart.
A dream solution would be for Turkey to discover oil or gas in waters that were unforgettably Turkish. That’s not likely. That, a situation that lawyers need to deploy instead is marine deployment.
Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and Director of the Bernstein Program on Golf and Energy Policy at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Follow him on Twitter @shendersongulf.
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