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United States Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died of pancreatic cancer at the age of 87. While the death of Ginsburg, who is portrayed as one of the biggest names in the American judiciary and one of the iconic judges of the liberal wing on the Supreme Court, had wide repercussions in the US, it is seen as the heralds of a new political war in Washington less than 7 weeks before the elections.
With 46 days before the presidential election to be held the first week of November, the question of who will fill the post of judge vacated by Ginsburg suddenly became the number one item on the US political agenda.
So far, Democratic candidate Joe Biden is expected to be marked by a nomination war, in which Trump’s policy against coronavirus has been at the forefront, while Trump has highlighted the growing Chinese threat, in which he shoots the Ginsburg’s death wick.
So what, and what will happen next, made the death of Judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg so important and was a political crisis expected in the United States in the short term?
WHO IS JUDGE GINSBURG?
Ginsburg, one of the prominent figures in the United States judiciary, was appointed as one of the Supreme Court justices by then-President Bill Clinton in 1993 and became the second judge appointed to this position.
Meanwhile, Ginsburg has become one of the symbolic figures of the liberal wing in the American judiciary and, in the process, has made progressive decisions on controversial issues that divide American society such as abortion, gay marriage, law voting, immigration and healthcare.
Regarded as one of the pioneers in the fight for women’s rights, Ginsburg became a national icon in the last period of her life and became one of the idol figures of the young generation in the growing feminist movement in the United States. U.S.
While undergoing cancer treatment, Ginsburg refused to retire to prevent Trump from appointing his replacement. According to the statement made by his grandson after his death, in his last statement he left behind, “My greatest wish is that no one be appointed in my place until a new president takes office.”
Hundreds of people gathered before the Supreme Court demand that Ginsburg’s last wish be fulfilled
WHY IS GINSBURG’S DEATH IMPORTANT?
Having the final say in disputes between high priority laws and the states and the federal government, justices of the United States Supreme Court remain in office for life or until they decide to retire.
In the current structure of the Supreme Court, which has 9 justices, it is striking that the majority of conservative justices have a 5-4 advantage in the important decisions made thus far. Ginsburg’s death meant that a vacant position would be filled by Trump’s newly appointed judge and the weight of conservatives in the American judiciary increased considerably.
President Donald Trump has so far appointed two justices to the Supreme Court during his tenure. If Trump makes an appointment until the election, he considers himself a Conservative judge, which means a new and absolute victory for Conservatives who will have the opportunity to rule the American judiciary for many years.
In his first statement on the matter, President Trump said: “We were brought into this strong and important position to make decisions on behalf of the people who proudly elected us. For a long time, the choice of Supreme Court justices has been considered the most important of these decisions. This decision is a must, without delay! ” he said he would make a new appointment before the elections.
WHAT IS THE CAUSE OF THE EXPECTATION OF A POLITICAL CRISIS?
When it came to a life appointment to the top of the American judiciary, just hours after Ginsburg’s death, the debate in Washington erupted.
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said Trump’s appointment of justices should be voted on in the Senate before the election. Because Trump’s appointment becomes legally valid after the Senate’s approval.
On the other hand, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden said: “Of course, first the voters must choose the president, then the president must choose the judge who will be subject to the Senate vote.”
However, these statements, which are precursors to a new political war, seem to cause debates about “hypocrisy” to erupt in American politics. A similar situation occurred in 2016 when the election was only 11 months away, but Republican figures, including McConnell, prevented then-President Barack Obama from appointing a new judge for a year.
McConnell, who at the time argued that the public had to express its opinion through an election before a new judge was appointed, says today about hypocritical disputes, this is not the case when both the Senate and the White House they are in the same party. In other words, in the current structure of American politics, the election for this appointment should not be expected.
Since the opening of Ginsburg in 1993
There are now 53 Republican senators in the Senate, which requires 50 votes to name a candidate for judge. However, two of them, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, expressed their opinion that if she won the election, the choice of judge should be left to Joe Biden. This shows that the situation in the Senate is at a razor’s edge as the elections approach.
However, the possibility of Republicans deferring the appointment until after November to avoid electoral pressure is one of the strongest options. Even if elections are held in the United States in November, the old administration continues like a “lame duck” until January, when the new president takes office.
In other words, even if President Donald Trump loses the election, he will not be erased in the American judiciary for many years and will have another 3 months to leave a mark that will guide the course of the Supreme Court.
DOES THE ELECTION PATH AFFECT?
The US elections are in the shadow of the coronavirus pandemic that has affected the entire world. While President Trump was seen to be ahead in polls conducted in the run-up to the pandemic, the economy, which was deteriorated by the Trump administration’s anti-epidemic and pandemic policies, risked Trump’s re-election.
In many polls conducted since the beginning of the summer, Biden is seen to lead the race in the 6-9 point range.
However, Ginsburg’s death has the potential to turn the balance in the elections. The controversy over the 2016 Supreme Court appointment turned conservative votes toward Trump. Because the conservative voter, who is sensitive to issues like immigrants, abortion and same-sex marriage, saw it as an opportunity for Trump to appoint the Supreme Court. Post-election polls revealed that more conservatives went to the polls due to the judging factor than liberals.
A similar effect can be seen in the 2020 election. If Republicans can fill the vacant seat before the election, the Conservative voter may be convinced why they should vote for Trump anyway. The opposite could see young Democrats go to the polls to reclaim the memory of Gingsburg, a national hero.
According to Democratic strategist Heather Colburn, who spoke to Politico, Gingsburg’s death was an opportunity to create the environment Trump wanted. Colburn said, “This is what Trump wants. If you’re talking about the Supreme Court, you’re also talking about social events.” sums it up in words. However, Colburn reminds us that the United States has gone to an election on “values” and that the current situation may also boost Biden’s campaign on the theme of “renewing the spirit of the nation.”
On the other hand, Scott Jennings, George W. Bush’s senior adviser, said of the image of Gingsburg’s death, “If you’re a Republican who needs to remember the importance of gambling, you’ve found a reason today. This scenario drew a lot of Republican votes. to Trump in 2016, again. It could be the same. “
It appears that 46 days before the US elections, which closely concern the future of the United States and beyond, they will pull the electoral process, which has been quite stagnant thus far, from this stalemate. Changes in the current balance, where Biden appears to be ahead, open a large window of opportunity for Trump to remain in the White House in the next 46 days.
