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When calculating the pension increases, the inflation difference is calculated in 6-month increments according to the collective agreement. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) announced by TURKSTAT rose 14.03 percent in November compared to the same month the previous year. Under this rate, retirees will receive an increase of at least 6.35 percent in the new year. This proportion is expected to rise to 8 percent when new figures are announced. So based on current data, how much increase will retirees get in the new year?
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WHAT WILL THE NEW YEAR BE LIKE FOR THE RETIRED?
For SSK and Bağkur retirees, their salaries are estimated to increase by up to TL 286.25 with the January increase. While the highest pension was 6,375.37 TL, it was among the predictions that it would be 6,661.62 TL with the rate of increase.
RETIRED SALARY TIME RATES 2021
According to the CPI forecast of 12.47 percent from the Central Bank’s expectations survey for 2020, inflation in the second half of this year, that is, SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees, is estimated at 6, 35 percent. However, when December inflation rates are announced, this amount is expected to reach 8 percent. In both options, the salary that retirees will receive in 2021 is as follows;
|
CURRENT SALARY |
2021 6.35% PERMANENT SALARY 2021 8% PERMANENT SALARY |
|
1,500 TL |
1,595.25 TL 1,722.35 TL |
|
1,600 TL |
1,701.60 TL 1,837.72 TL |
|
1.800 TL |
1,914.30 TL 2,067.44 TL |
|
2,000 TL |
2,127.00 TL 2,297.16 TL |
|
2,200 TL |
2,339.70 TL 2,526.87 TL |
|
2,400 TL |
2,556.00 TL 2,760.48 TL |
|
2,600 TL |
2,765.10 TL 2,986.30 TL |
|
2,800 TL |
2,977.80 TL 3,216.02 TL |
|
3,000 TL |
3,190.50 TL 3,445.74 TL |
|
3,200 TL |
3,403.20 TL 3,675.45 TL |
|
3,400 TL |
3,616.90 TL 3,906.25 TL |
|
4,000 TL |
4,254.00 TL 4,594.32 TL |
WILL THE PENSIONS OF THE PENSIONS BE THE MINIMUM WAGE?
Recently, two arrangements have been made for the salaries of retirees. With the arrangement made, the lowest pension was determined at 1000 TL. However, a new arrangement was made during the pandemic process and the lowest pension was 1500 TL. These two regulations followed by the Turkish Retirees Association (TÜED) came to demand a new wage regulation. In this application, TÜED requested that the base salary for SSK and Bağkur retirees be at least the level of the minimum wage. If this TÜED request is fulfilled, the lowest pension will be paid as 2 thousand 324 TL. In this case, salaries will be increased by 824 TL. The wages of those who receive widows and orphans under the same demand will also increase with this regulation.
CBRT EXPECTATIONS SURVEY
Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), shared in the Survey of Expectations Statistics of December 2020. Consequently, the expectation of the current year-end exchange rate (dollar / TL) was 7.89 TL in the previous survey period and was 7.77 TL in this survey period. The exchange rate expectation after 12 months was 8.41 TL in the previous survey period and it was 8.37 TL in this survey period. While the current year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation was 12.47 percent in the previous survey period, it was 14.18 percent in this survey period. The CPI expectation after 12 months was 10.77 percent in the previous survey period, while it was 10.84 percent in this survey period. has been. The CPI expectation of 24 months ahead was met at 9.20 percent and 9.24 percent, respectively, during the same survey periods.
In the survey period of December 2020, when evaluating the probability estimates of the participants for the next 12 months, the CPI will be in the range of 9.00 – 9.99 percent with an average probability of 14, 30 percent, and a probability of 10.00 – 10.99 percent with a probability of 32.14 percent. It was predicted to increase in the range of 11.00 to 11.99 percent with a probability of 32.95 percent. According to the evaluation made on the basis of point estimates in the same period of the survey, 14.55 percent of the expectations of the participants ranged between 9.00 and 9.99 percent, 34.55 percent of their expectations within the range of 10.00 to 10.99, 32 percent, It was observed that the expectations of 73 of them were in the range of 11.00 – 11.99 percent.
In the survey period of December 2020, when evaluating the probability estimates of the participants for the next 24 months, the average CPI is in the range of 8.00 – 8.99 percent with 29.24 percent probability, and in the range of 9.00 – 9.99 percent with a probability of 36.07 percent. It was predicted to increase in the range of 10.00 – 10.99 percent with a probability of 12.39 percent. According to the evaluation made on the basis of point estimates in the same survey period, when the 24-month CPI inflation expectations are evaluated, 21.15 percent of the participants’ expectations are in the range of 8.00 – 8.99 percent and 42.31 percent of your expectations are 9.00 – 9 percent. The expectations of 19.23 percent were found to be in the range of 99.10.00-10.99 percent.
