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Geophysical Engineer Prof. Dr. Övgün Ahmet Ercan suggested that the biggest earthquake in the Marmara region will be in Tekirdağ.
Organized by the Marmara Ereğlisi District Municipality of Tekirdağ, ‘Earthquake is always at our door’ Speaking at the panel on the subject of Prof. Dr. Ercan, Kırklareli of the safest provinces in terms of earthquake in Turkey, Edirne and Tekirdağ, said the northern regions.
He said that most of the unsafe regions in Thrace in terms of earthquakes and that should not be open to construction are Ergene Pit, Marmara Ereglisi, Mürefte and Şarköy.
Ercan said the behavior of the North Anatolian fracture was one of personality, starting from the east and moving step by step west. Describing previous earthquakes in the region, the professor said: “Ultimately, geophysical engineers told us in 1982 that there would be an Izmit earthquake in 1999. When I applied my algorithm in 1982, I said that an earthquake could happen anytime after 1994. Of course, most of you didn’t remember This is because earthquake topics weren’t that interesting at the time. Then, with a delay of five years, the 1999 earthquake thundered and we lost 17,800 people. The energy released in this 7.5 magnitude earthquake was equivalent to the power of 130 atomic bombs. “
Earthquake in the Thrace and Marmara region
Prof. Dr. Stating that they know where the stress is or not with the earthquake gauges in Marmara, Ercan said: “According to this, there is a high voltage from the west of Büyükçekmece to Şarköy. This means that part of the land where this tension is located starts from Silivri, that is, part of the west of Istanbul, but most of it is in the province of Tekirdağ. Consequently, we say that Tekirdağ province is waiting for an earthquake. The place where this earthquake will occur is in front of Marmara Ereğlisi, where this hive of bees is most intense. If you want, we can go out and I can show you exactly where the earthquake will be. There will be an earthquake in the entire Thrace region, which will not be just the Marmara Ereğlisi earthquake.
If you say how this earthquake will break, it will break in the east-west direction. When an earthquake happens, it will break in an east-west direction and move the Thracian fracture and pass just below the filling facilities in Marmara Ereğlisi and head towards Çorlu, I also say that it will affect Çorlu a lot. will create. In other words, this earthquake will not only be the Marmara Ereğlisi earthquake, but it will be the earthquake of all Thrace and the Marmara region. “.
‘The first earthquake is under Küçükçekmece’
Prof. Dr. Stating that he was asked about the great Istanbul earthquake, Ercan said: ‘The earthquake in front of Istanbul will be ahead of Küçükçekmece and Hunters’ he said and continued as follows: “This earthquake will be between 6.4 and 6.7. Then it won’t be big. If there was a big earthquake in Istanbul, friends, if you don’t know anything, look at the ruins there, today there would be no Hagia Sophia nor Bozdoğan aqueduct, nor Suleymaniye, the walls of Istanbul would remain. The walls of Yedikule collapse every time an earthquake occurs. In my opinion, the first earthquake will be under Küçükçekmece “.
’24 atomic bomb intensity ‘
‘Nobody talks about the Tekirdağ earthquake’ Ercan emphasized on this situation: “However, the great earthquake will occur in Tekirdağ. The destructive force of the earthquake that Marmara Ereğlisi expects will also be 9. If you do not want to search for people under the rubble in Marmara Ereğlisi, if you do not want to lose lives, all the buildings on that coast must be demolished. If you don’t destroy them, the earthquake will destroy them all. People shouldn’t say my property first. One person died from the earthquake in the Republic of Turkey is the cost of 1 million 250 thousand dollars. Well, do you know how much investment per person must be made to prevent one person from dying in an earthquake? It’s only five thousand dollars “.
Stating that he had previously said that there would be no major earthquakes before 2045, Ercan explained the earthquakes in the region and used the following statements about their magnitude: “The Marmara Ereğlisi earthquake will be more than 6 times the Istanbul earthquake. The energy that will be released in the expected earthquake in Istanbul will be 4.3 atomic bombs. However, the energy that will be released in the Marmara Ereğlisi earthquake will be equivalent to 24 atomic bombs, but we can overcome this without loss of life. “.
The Aydin region is dangerous
Speaking of the recent earthquakes in Malatya, Aydın and Çorum, Prof. Dr. Ercan made the following assessment: “These were the size of earthquakes. There was an earthquake right in Çorum, at the Ezine Market breakout. This magnitude of 4.1 shows that the Ezine Market breakout is alive. Other earthquakes were smaller, there is nothing to fear. However, none of the 5.5-5.6 midsize earthquakes we expected in Samos have yet occurred.
This situation shows us that there is an ongoing reserve and the benefit of the destruction of the damaged buildings in Izmir as soon as possible and the prevention of deaths there in the future. Now, earthquakes occur very infrequently in Aydin. You know that Kuşadası is a district of Aydın. The most common place for earthquakes is the area where the island of Samos and Kuşadasi meet. Therefore, Aydın is the region most averse to earthquakes. But Efeler is not a district. The Aydın districts with great earthquake concern are listed as Nazilli, Söke, Kuşadası, Ortaklar, Germencik, and Efeler..
‘It hasn’t happened yet’
Stating that the magnitude of the earthquake in Seferihisar off the coast of İzmir was 7 and its destructive power was 9, Ercan said: “For Izmir, this earthquake did not happen in Izmir, it happened in Samos. The magnitude of the earthquake was 7 and the destructive force was 9. This is a bit of a shame for Turkey. Since I do not expect an earthquake greater than 7 in the Samos region, it means that I do not expect a larger earthquake in Izmir. The real Izmir earthquake is an earthquake that will be above the Izmir rupture. If there were a 7-degree earthquake in Izmir, we could talk about the death of many people. Yes, the fracture in Samos has discharged, I do not expect an earthquake there, but the Izmir rupture continues its accumulation to create an earthquake in the future.
Urban transformation is the only remedy for this. I said I was not expecting the earthquake any time soon. We need to accelerate urban transformation. We have to give up structural transformation, demolish it in the neighborhood and district and rebuild it in its place. This is what needs to be done as soon as possible, and municipalities do not have the ability to control these structures and force them to renovate. If this authority of the municipalities is given to the municipalities, this work will be accelerated. It is never late for anything. Therefore, the Istanbul earthquake is still 20-25 years away. There has not yet been a devastating earthquake in Istanbul. In addition, there was no earthquake in Mármara Ereğlisi, so until today laws, regulations have been issued, base maps have been drawn up for urban transformations, the actions that will be taken from now on will accelerate the work “.
