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Huseyin KOYUNCUOĞLU
After the change of office at the Central Bank, all eyes turned to the reactions of the markets. Especially the decision to name the Turkish Lira a surprise is to wonder how to show an impact on the presence of Turkey.
Despite the pressure of rising US bond yields in emerging markets, the Turkish lira, supported by the 200 basis point increase in the Central Bank policy rate, attracted attention with a positive divergence. The dollar / TL retreated to 7.18 on Friday night and closed the week at 7.2131. Euro’TL also closed just under 8.60.
The prevailing opinion is that the surprise date will cause volatility in the markets on Monday. The experts evaluated the change of functions and how the markets will react to the WORLD.
Tuğrul Belli, columnist for the Dünya newspaper:
Messages should be sent as soon as possible to calm the market.
Noting that foreign investors and institutions are now confused by the unexpected change of roles at the Central Bank, newspaper columnist Dünya Tuğrul Belli stated that the dollar / TL may see 7.80 as the first reaction. Emphasizing that the new president should deliver messages that reassure the markets without wasting time, Tuğrul Belli made the following assessment: “I mentioned in my last article that the rate hike is due to a bit of market pressure, but ultimately instance, Naci Ağbal not something that can do much. At the time when the reserves were not sufficient, there was no other option than an increase in the interest rate. While expectations of an increase in inflation were not very high, the question ‘Couldn’t a big increase in interest rates be necessary?
“We can see the 7.80”
Regarding the effects of the reorganization on the markets, foreign analysts and commentators are currently extremely negative. Analysts are a bit more on Turkey, assessing the positive interest rate hikes, fueled by those that had created an impact. I think the dollar / TL can see 7.80 at the beginning. As a result, when there is an interest rate of 19 percent, we will see how much sales income and where there will be a balance. The continuation of the bullish movement can take place around 8.5s, which is the all-time high. The possible pressure on the TL will diminish if the markets deliver a reassuring and reassuring message. The statements of the newly arrived Central Bank governor will be followed. It should give a reassuring message to the markets as soon as possible. “
Soner Kuru, Deputy Managing Director of Marbaş:
There is a bullish movement at the opening of the week.
Soner Kuru, Deputy Managing Director of Marbaş Securities, stated that there will be an increase in the exchange rate on the first trading day of the week and made the following assessment: “ Since Naci Ağbal has just arrived and President Erdoğan has been serving in various levels for many years, this The unexpected layoff generated a shock effect on the market. There is still no explanation for the reason for the decision. However, we believe this may be due to the tough stance of the new administration at the time of tight monetary policies. We expect a fluctuating and directional movement. A clearer picture may emerge after the possible messages to be given next week. But for now, we believe that the new administration will not adopt a “strict stance” like the previous one. This is likely to have a bullish effect on the currency in the medium to long term.
The dollar reaches its lowest level since February 25
After observing a fluctuating course around 7.5 for a week, the USD / TL rose to 7.64 this week after the HDP was sued for the close. This rise was kept short with the statements of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) and the decision of the CBRT. The exchange rate, which was trading around 7.56 before the CBRT decision, fell to 7.1897, which was recorded for the first time since February 25.
