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Professor of Geophysical Engineering in Tekirdağ, Şarköy, on vacation. Dr. Övgün Ahmet Ercan was trapped in the district with a 4.1 magnitude earthquake that occurred off Şarköy on September 9. Ercan said they expect the earthquake not in the sea but in the mountainous region.
“The northern Anatolian fracture lands from the area where Ayvasıl is located, from where Uçmakdere is located. From there, it goes to Gölcük, from Gölcük to Çokal dam, from where Güzelköy is to Mursallı, and from there to the Gulf of Saroz. “He accepted that this place was broken again. But the last earthquake showed us that there is confusion. “
‘MARMARA WILL SLIDE 2.5 METERS TOWARDS GREECE’
Ercan said that the earthquake will not occur in the mountain but in the sea: “A North Marmara fracture passes through the sea. The second branch, which we call the Tekirdağ earthquake, will be on this fracture. The focus of the earthquake expected from the Tekirdağ branch will be within the sea 10-15 kilometers in Marmara Ereğlisi. It will explode in the granite layer 10-15 kilometers from the sea, show an explosion in an east-west direction, at the same time it will migrate 1-1.5 meters and there will be a 2-2.5 meter offset towards Greece in the Marmara. If you say, it will be 7.2. If you say where this earthquake breaks, it will start from where Büyükçekmece is, it will pass Marmara Ereğlisi, Mürefte in front of Uçmakdere, Şarköy in front of Hoşköy and the Gelibolu Peninsula from Şarköy. “You will enter Saros Bay. From there it will go to Thessaloniki. “
‘THE ANATOLIAN PENINSULA WILL CHANGE TOWARDS THE AEGEAN’
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Prof. Dr. Ahmet Övgün Ercan stated that the earthquake he mentioned is the western position of the North Marmara earthquakes, “And it has an eastern position. Its eastern branch is Istanbul. It is constantly referred to as the ‘great Istanbul earthquake’ Actually, the earthquake is the great Istanbul and Tekirdağ earthquake. Now Istanbul ‘The earthquake that will occur off Istanbul will be in the form of a rupture some 20-25 kilometers further south of Küçükçekmece. As a result of this rupture, the The ground will move to the west between 1 and 1.5 meters, so the Anatolian peninsula will show a displacement towards the Aegean. The magnitude of the earthquake will be between 6.3 and 6.7 The duration of this earthquake will take around 16 18 seconds in front of Istanbul, but if the earthquake will be in front of Tekirdağ, it will take between 30 and 35 seconds. That is, the density of Istanbul is high, approximately 2 thousand 568 people live in Istanbul per square kilometer. Almost 200 people live n per square kilometer. In other words, the population density in Istanbul is high, but the earthquake is lower but the number of deaths is higher. When it reaches the Tekirdağ branch, due to the low population density, the earthquake will cause less damage even if it is large. Therefore, we can survive these earthquakes completely immortal and without destruction.
‘THERE IS THE MOST CONTEMPORARY REGULATION ON EARTHQUAKES’
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The Republic of Turkey always told Ercan that the criticism, “But there are also good aspects. Changed the earthquake regulations in 2007, the rating was. 2017 more new earthquake regulations appeared. Current seismic codes, the most modern seismic codes in the world. The important thing is what I wrote. ” Urban transformation is the only solution in an earthquake, but our people are generally undergoing a structural transformation. That is, they are demolishing and rebuilding. This is not an urban transformation. If you say what should happen, if we give an example, the Mürefte buildings will be completely demolished. The buildings in Şarköy need to be redesigned. The structures of Istanbul need to be redesigned. The structures of Tekirdağ need to be redesigned. Because when the construction sector is involved, it operates around 200 pens and therefore the economy turns on its own. This earthquake is important to us. Our yıkımsız bypass the filter and the Republic of Turkey is an event in the hands of its citizens, we can do it, “he said.
‘I need to let people fear’
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Underlining that people should not fear earthquakes, Prof. Ercan said: “Because it affects investments, it affects the economy, it affects people’s finances and mood. Now you cannot expect a productive life from people with bad mood. Therefore, earthquake news is not given as often as weather reports. An earthquake scientist says and stays there. Because earthquake conditions do not change in size of years, not even in 10 years. For example, in 1999, I said “there will be an earthquake in 2045.” After that, if something changed its mind, it did not change. Because the news of the earthquake is not given like the weather reports. We have to prevent liberation, Investors don’t need to release fear. And if you say there will be an earthquake in Istanbul, the stock market crashes in Turkey, it doesn’t mean foreign investment. “
