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Latest news … Geophysical Engineer Prof. Dr. Övgün Ahmet Ercan made assessments on the statements made about possible earthquakes that may occur in Istanbul in recent days. Ercan said there is no precedent for the Istanbul earthquake, “Istanbul earthquake warnings have been ‘within 3 days’ since 1999, ‘they will be within 3 months’ if not in 3 days, ‘they will be within 1 year’ , if not within 1 year ” It will happen in 3 years, then it will be in 10 years. ‘ And the last coming “will happen in 4 years”, “will definitely happen in 2018”, we arrive until 2020. It has been 21 years after the earthquake. And now, there are predictions that are not based on scientific bases, as it will not be in 2024, it may be anytime, not 2029. None of those who make these predictions are geophysical engineers because geophysical engineers make earthquake predictions. “Actually, it’s a disgrace. Because fear is being instilled in people, which has no scientific basis, “he said.
‘THE SIZE OF THE ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE is 6.4’
Prof. Dr. Stating that the magnitude of a possible earthquake in Istanbul will be 6.4, Ercan said:
“When we look at the history of the 4 thousand year earthquake in general, the magnitude of the usual big earthquake in Istanbul is about 6.4. It needs to be assessed as North Marmara or be assessed as Marmara. Because it doesn’t matter where there is an earthquake in Marmara, in an area with a radius of 100 km. As such, there was an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 in Gölcük, the destructive power of this earthquake in Gölcük was 11. But the destructive power in Avcılar was about 9 and it destroyed the Avcılar structures was 100 kilometers from Gölcük. There was an earthquake in Gölcük, about 120 kilometers from there, it had a fatal effect on Adapazari. However, the earthquake did not happen there, since in the last Izmir earthquake, the earthquake happened on Samos, magnitude 7, it came and destroyed Bayraklı in Izmir, which is 78 kilometers away. There don’t have to be two earthquakes where you are for your house to collapse or be in danger. em is your earthquake. For the Therefore, earthquakes, which are spoken as the great Istanbul earthquake, the great Tekirdağ earthquake, are at the same time in Kocaeli, as well as in Yalova, but also in Bursa, Mudanya, Gemlik, Bandırma, Balıkesir, Çanakkale, Tekirdağ. earthquakes. It should be perceived as such. In other words, the expectation should be an expectation of destruction not only for Istanbul and Tekirdağ, but also for the entire Marmara region. What is the problem with this? Nowhere does Marmara have a dense population that has not existed as much as in Turkey. Also, there are 2,568 people per square kilometer in Istanbul. When we look at the average for Marmara, there are about 1,500 people per square kilometer. When we look at the Turkey average of 86 people. This means that the number of people living per unit area and the number of residences per unit area are very dense in Marmara. The busiest place is Istanbul. The part where Izmit is located, that is, densities per unit area. The higher the density per unit area, the greater the destruction. “
‘EARTHQUAKES of more than 7.2 occur EVERY 570 YEARS’
Stating that there is an earthquake of approximately 6.2 degrees in Marmara every 30 years, Prof. Dr. Övgün Ahmet Ercan said: “Once again, there is an earthquake of between 6.3 and 6.7 in every 104 years in Marmara. Earthquakes with a magnitude greater than about 7.2 occur in approximately 570 years in Marmara. Thus, an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 that we have seen in Gölcük. The possibility of a recurrence in Marmara is almost negligible, so To say that a 7.6 earthquake is expected in Marmara has no relation to Marmara’s 4,000-year seismic behavior, even if there was an earthquake greater than 7 in Marmara. On today’s Eminönü peninsula, neither Hagia Sophia, nor the Maiden’s Tower, neither the Bozdağan Valens Arch would have survived, nor the Süleymaniye Mosque, nor the Fatih Mosque, the Beyazıt Mosque, nor the Sultanahmet Mosque, none of the ancient monuments, however, they are all standing , including the walls of Istanbul These are the tests igos from the earthquakes, which means that there were no major earthquakes in the area where Istanbul is located. Why didn’t it happen in Istanbul? There is a magma approach. The resistance to crushing of the earth’s crust is higher than 6 billion zygatons, just where the Bosphorus is and where the Suriçi is. Therefore, in the earthquake of 99, on the one hand, the fracture that started from Gölcük and headed towards Kaynaşlı, on the other hand, started from Gölcük and went to Yalova via Karamürsel, from there to Çınarcık and from there to Esenköy. From there came a branch. Like a fish bone. One of them broke from the north of the Çınarcık well to Sivriada, and another branch broke from this main branch over Tuzla to Pendik, Kartal, thence to Maltepe and thence to Bostanlı. The islands are right between these two. If it had continued, on the one hand, this fracture would have entered the pavilion from the Fenerbahçe nose, on the other hand, it would break from the section where it is located towards Sarayburnu and on the other hand, turning right in front of Küçükçekmece, in front of Avcılar towards Büyükçekmece. The main reason it doesn’t go is that the earth’s crust has great resistance to breaking right in front of Istanbul. Therefore, he could not continue, he stayed there.
‘MARMARA IS VERY TIRED NOW’
Noting that the Marmara region is very tired at the moment, Prof. Dr. Ercan said: “Marmara is very tired at the moment. He needs to build up tension again to break this place. That build up of tension changes depending on the rhythm of build-up of tension that comes from the east every year. ” It is necessary to wait at least until 2045 for this crust to develop and break, if there is a uniform distribution, if this accumulation of stress is not enough, the earthquake can be delayed until 2075. Time has always confirmed me. Time has deceived many people. Maybe what our friends want to say here is make an earthquake watch. But making a false earthquake alert will shake the country’s economy, there will be no investment in that country. Different like Bulgaria, like Ukraine, like Russia they slide in some places. So the country’s economy suffers. “The country’s tourism is also affected,” he said.
‘WE SHOULD NOT HIT THE ECONOMY’
Prof. Dr. Recalling that there was a magnitude 7 earthquake in Samos, Ercan said: “There was a magnitude 7 earthquake in Samos. The Greeks did not say that there was an earthquake in Greece. But we immediately claimed this earthquake, although we did not have the earthquake, we said this earthquake in Izmir. There was no earthquake. In other words, it is necessary to adjust someone’s scale well, not to make society nervous and not hit the economy. Earthquake scientists need to speak more carefully. The earthquake is not a A topic that will be the subject of televisions or newspapers. It spans 200 years. But in Turkey, earthquake news or earthquake predictions are based on a scientific basis, we call it hissikablelvuk de. I am speaking as if the Turk was born to me. Because of to being spoken incorrectly, there is no responsibility for anything described.necessarily to make a shorthand of a person in Turkey and you must be a geophysical engineer and have taken the science course s from earthquakes. Unfortunately, none of those who say there is a small earthquake are geophysical engineers.
‘I NEED TO PREPARE ISTANBUL’
Turkey in the last 21 years, earthquakes on many things done that Ercan expresses, “What do I need to do? I need to prepare for Istanbul. We don’t need to be a big earthquake to prepare for Istanbul. 21 years have done many things. Only Istanbul is the most I know. They have done many things in the city. One in 5 buildings is demolished due to the soil problem, one in 5 buildings and the other 4 are demolished due to bad constructions. That building cannot be protected from earthquakes by removing only the core of the building or making the building reinforcement measures. Both the site and the building need to be reinforced. There are 1 million 800 thousand buildings in Istanbul. Istanbul is larger than many European cities. Therefore, it is unfortunately not possible to suddenly strengthen the structures in Istanbul placing a magic wand like this. Little by little, construction and geophysics in the sense of urban transformation of this business. engineers, architects, urbani These, come together and are healthy both in terms of location and qualified construction, it is necessary to make safe advances, “he said.
