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The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, one of the oldest unresolved conflicts in the world, turned into a hot conflict again with bilateral clashes that took place on Sunday and brought the southern Caucasus to the brink of widespread war.
In the early hours of Sunday, after the Armenian army’s military operation against the Azerbaijani army positions in the region, tension in the region increased rapidly and many people lost their lives during the day-long clashes. Due to the contradictory statements of the parties, it is not yet known how many people died in the clashes, while the Azerbaijani army claimed that 12 air defense systems belonging to Armenia were destroyed during the clashes, while the Armenian army issued a statement that 2 helicopters and 3 tanks from Azerbaijan were destroyed.
While the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry confirmed that a helicopter crashed during the clashes, it issued a statement saying that other reports of missing persons did not reflect the truth.
Although it was first denied by the Armenian army, later on Sunday, the de facto leader of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Arayik Harutyunyan, confirmed that some positions in the region were lost to the Azerbaijani army.
Shortly after the declaration of martial law by the de facto Iravan-backed administration in Nagorno-Karabakh, martial law and mobilization were declared in Armenia, while the Azerbaijani government declared a 24-hour state of war.
Speaking in front of the cameras in Yerevan, Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan said: “Please be prepared to protect our holy homeland.” declared that the region was on the brink of a generalized war.
1. HOW DID THE KARABAKH PROBLEM START?
The origins of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, a region inhabited by Azerbaijani Muslims and Armenian Christians for centuries, are very old. Although Armenians and Azerbaijanis lived in relative peace in the region, which became part of the Russian empire in the 19th century, bloody events took place in the early 20th century.
After the First World War and the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia, the political structure of the region changed. In the early 1920s, the administration of the Soviet Union established the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Administration in the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic, from which the majority of Armenians originated. The political structure created with the understanding of “divide and rule” in order to facilitate Moscow’s administration in the region has long succeeded in establishing peace in the region.
However, with the weakening of Soviet control in the latter part of the 1980s, the fiery conflict between Azeri and Armenia in the region came to the brink. The decision of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Administration to join Armenia first and then declare independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 turned the conflicts in the region into a full-scale war.
A photo released by the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry after Sunday’s clashes.
The photo released by the Armenian Defense Ministry after the clashes on Sunday.
In the 1991 referendum held for the declaration of independence in Karabakh, the majority voted for independence, but many people of Azeri origin did not go to the polls, arguing that the referendum was not legitimate. Karabakh’s declaration of independence, which has an autonomous status, was accepted as contrary to international law, as the Soviet constitution granted only 15 former Soviet republics the right to independence. The Baku administration, which declared the referendum illegal, ended Karabakh’s autonomous status. The war that started after the referendum continued for 3 years.
The events in which the Armenian forces killed hundreds of civilians in Khojaly in 1992 are considered the bloodiest period of the war. According to data from the Azerbaijani authorities, the Khojaly massacre, where 600 people lost their lives, is still defined as a “tragedy” by the international community, while Azerbaijan considers the massacre a “genocide”.
Until the 1994 ceasefire, it is estimated that between 20 and 30 thousand people died in the clashes. 1 million people had to leave the regions where they lived. While Azerbaijanis, who constituted 25 percent of the population in the region before the war, had to leave Nagorno-Karabakh with the war, Armenians living in other regions of Azerbaijan had to leave these regions due to the attacks. Both groups are still unable to return home today.
2. WHAT IS THE CURRENT SITUATION LIKE IN DAĞLIK KARABAKH?
Although heated clashes in the region were halted with the signing of a Russian-mediated ceasefire in 1994, a peace agreement was never signed between the parties.
With the ceasefire, while a de facto Armenian-backed administration was being formed in the Karabakh region, the Azerbaijani territories surrounding Karabakh were also occupied. Although the de facto Armenian-backed administration continues in Nagorno-Karabakh, no country or international institution has recognized this administration for 30 years.
Armenia itself, which supported the administration in the region financially and militarily, did not take any steps to recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Although this fragile Armenian-backed ceasefire and the status quo in the region caused strong clashes between the parties for many years, the occasional meeting of the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia was interpreted as vital signs of the peace process.
While significant progress was made in negotiations between the two countries between May and November 2009, the process was stalled at some point and the region has witnessed serious ceasefire violations since then. As today, in 2016 strong clashes began between the two parties, which resulted in the death of dozens of soldiers.
3. WHAT DO THE PARTIES WANT?
The Nagorno-Karabakh problem, one of the most serious problems that threatens peace in the world, has become an unsolved problem like the conflict between Israel and Palestine and the Cyprus problem, but it has not attracted attention. of the international community for more than 30 years.
Azerbaijan, which is about 20 percent of its territory recognized by the United Nations, is under occupation, it aims to restore these lands and bring Baku under the control of Baku. So much so that the demonstrations in Azerbaijan after the clashes last July and demanding war to end the occupation have gone down in history as the largest street demonstrations in the history of the country.
After the clashes in July, tens of thousands of people in Baku demanded the mobilization by walking towards the parliament.
Armenia, on the other hand, is the greatest protector of the de facto administration in the region where ethnic Armenians are the majority. Yerevan, which actually manages the region and the line of occupation surrounding it, is on its way to creating a de facto situation in the region similar to the situation Israel created in the Golan Heights on the Syrian border. Because a possible solution in the region could mean the withdrawal of the Armenian forces from the occupation line in Nagorno-Karabakh and its surroundings in terms of international law. For this reason, the unsolved and frozen problem in Nagorno-Karabakh is interpreted as a pro-Yerevan process.
From time to time, the Yerevan administration brings tension in the region to the border line in the Tovruz region located in the north of Nagorno-Karabakh. Tovruz, the center of the July conflict, is strategically important. The crossing point of three main oil pipelines in the region where Armenia wants to strengthen its dominance. Power lines in the region are opened to the world through Georgia and Turkey, and play an important role in the political and economic stability of Azerbaijan.
Furthermore, a second front to be opened in the north of this region after Nagorno-Karabakh has the potential to change the scale of the conflict between the two countries and provide Armenia with critical military and political advantages.
Map showing power lines in the region.
4. WHAT DO INTERNATIONAL ACTORS SAY?
Russia: One of the main players in the conflicts between Azerbaijan and Armenia for years, the Moscow administration is traditionally seen as an ally of Armenia. Russia, which is the largest supplier of arms to the Armenian administration, was Armenia’s most important supporter in the war in the early 1990s and was the mediator of the ceasefire process developed against Azerbaijan. However, it is possible to say that Russia is seeking to develop control over Yerevan and Baku by providing some support to both sides. Although Moscow is a military ally of Armenia, it has also made significant arms sales to Azerbaijan in recent years. However, it should be noted that these arms sales are made at higher prices compared to sales to Armenia.
In recent clashes, Moscow issued great statements. Following the outbreak of heated clashes, Russian President Vladimir Putin asked the parties to come to the table and resolve the issues through dialogue.
Turkey: the administration of Ankara, Russia largely supported by Azerbaijan against the historical, political and military sense of Armenia, the biggest supporter of the position. Made from Ankara after the initiation shock ‘wishes in Azerbaijan in what way, then support will be given’ description that reveals that its position in Turkey is experiencing tension, Foreign Minister Cavusoglu, the Russian counterpart, the tension talks with Lavrov, the measures to be taken to reduce the aim can be ruled out with the Moscow channel. The other side of the conflict with Turkey, that Armenia does not have diplomatic relations.
Iran: Iran, another important power in the region, offered mediation to both countries for the solution of the problems after the start of the conflict. However, when assessing Iran’s position in the region, it should be noted that a significant part of the population living in northern Iran, as well as the long border line with Azerbaijan, is of Azerbaijani origin and that the traditional foreign policy of Iran relies on preventing a separatist movement here. .
United States: The United States, which day by day has been losing weight in solving international problems with the Donald Trump administration, has not taken a clear position on the conflicts that bring the South Caucasus to the brink of total war. US President Donald Trump said in his first statement on the issue: “We have very good relations in that region and we will see if we can stop (the conflicts).” used expressions. However, the domestic agenda mobilized by the upcoming presidential elections in the US may prevent attention from focusing on the Caucasus.
