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LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS FOR OVER GOLD UP
Onurcan Bal – Investment Advisor to Gedik Investment
Although the dollar was seen to appreciate globally in September, both the appreciation of the dollar and the strengthening of the desire to collect in the markets resulted in an acceleration of sales in the last part of September under ounce. Although the response purchases are observed in October, which tested the $ 1,848 level with effective sales in late September, in October, a fluctuating course is effective. The evolution of the economic support package and the uncertainty that rises from time to time in the US increase volatility in the markets. The strengthening of optimistic expectations about the incentive package brings with it some pullback in the dollar and a recovery in gold prices, while the weakening of expectations due to the announcements may lead to earnings returns below an ounce. At the same time, the increase in the number of cases and the tightening of measures in Europe also put pressure on risk appetite, helping gold to remain above $ 1900.
We believe that global volatility may remain high in the last quarter of the year due to concerns related to the epidemic, the growing risks on the side of the economic recovery and the uncertainty that the US elections will bring. Concerns about the pandemic, the evolution of the US electoral process, the incentive package process, explanations about vaccine studies and the trend of the dollar will continue to affect prices below an ounce in the short term. Demand for safe havens may gain traction if the risks listed above put pressure on the markets.
