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A report written by top US pandemic experts. USA He warned that the coronavirus epidemic could continue for another 18 months to two years, and that a second, larger wave could occur in the fall or winter.
In the report from the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), it was suggested that the epidemic would not remain intact for 60-70 percent of the population.
“It is against microbiology to think that this will end immediately,” CIDRAP Director Mike Osterholm said at this rate on CNN Television.
Osterholm, who has been investigating epidemics and risks for the past 20 years, advised the presidents of the United States on this subject.
Osterholm, a pandemic specialist at Harvard University. Dr. Marc Lipsitch, CIDRAP medical director. He wrote with Kristine Moore and the author of the book “La gran influenza”, which describes the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, along with historian John Barry.
The report indicated that no one is immune to this disease since Covid 19 is new:
“Since herd immunity will gradually develop among humans, the duration of the outbreak is likely to be 18 to 24 months. Covid-19 spreads more easily than influenza, due to the longer incubation period, increased spread not specified and higher R0 (blur coefficient) “.
Three scenarios
Three scenarios are possible, government officials advised to stop telling the public that the outbreak will end soon and prepare for the future:
one.stage: Small waves follow the first Covid-19 wave in the spring of 2020 throughout the summer and a year or two later. The outbreak gradually decreases sometime in 2021.
2.stage: A larger wave follows the first Covid-19 wave in fall or winter. One or two other small waves appear in 2021:
“This model requires reverting to fall epidemic measures to prevent the disease from spreading and putting pressure on health systems. This model is similar to what was seen in the 1918-19 epidemic.”
3.stage: The epidemic continues slowly:
“In the third scenario, it does not require reapplication to slow the epidemic. But the cases and deaths will continue.”
The report states that preparation must be done according to the second scenario with the most severe predictions.
