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The president of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), Naci, recently received the task from Ağbal and was replaced by Shihab Kavcioglu. The appointment decision signed by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was published in the Official Gazette. Consequently, Ağbal was removed from office within the scope of additional article 35 of Decree Law with number 375 and article 2 of Presidential Decree with number 3. Born in Bayburt on May 23, 1967, the new president Kavcıoğlu graduated from the Dokuz Eylül University, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Department of Business Administration. Kavcıoğlu, who graduated from Istanbul University Accounting Institute as an audit specialist, studied business administration at Hastings College in England. Kavcioglu completed his master’s and doctorate degrees at the Marmara University Institute of Banking and Insurance, Banco Popular de Esbank and Turkey held various positions at AŞ. Kavcıoğlu, who was a deputy from Bayburt’s 26th term, worked as a professor in the Banking department of the Marmara University School of Banking and Insurance.
Şahap Kavcıoğlu, who is also a columnist for the Yeni Şafak newspaper, has recently written articles on Central Bank reserves and interest policies. Kavcıoğlu, who wrote an article titled ‘Inflation, Interest and the Exchange Rate’ in the newspaper in question on February 9, used the following statements: “The announcement by the CBRT that it will not lower or increase interest rates until it has started a relaxation of inflation a new wave of increases in equity holdings and swaps. In other words, hot money and portfolio investments also increased.
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This shows that your problem is getting as much interest as possible. On the other hand, we see that with the steps taken, the exchange rate is somewhat restrained. But how much of these gains in the currency are due to increases in interest rates? What is the price of preferring interest to fiscal policy in the process that began with the effect of monetary expansion? How far should it have been used? Here again it is necessary to analyze well where the step from excess interest to shock will take us. Now all segments of society have to abandon conventional policies and agree to more structural solutions. While there is a negative interest rate in the world, it is really sad that the leading economic writers, bankers, and representatives of business organizations in this country are seeking stability at high interest rates.
‘INTEREST DOES NOT SOLVE PROBLEMS’
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Noting that the Central Bank should not insist on the high interest policy, Kavcıoğlu continued his article with the following phrases: “As long as interest rates in the world are close to zero, we will not increase economic problems. On the contrary, it will deepen the problems in the future.
Because, increases in interest rates will indirectly lead to an increase in inflation. In periods when there is a lot of liquidity in the world for many years, Turkey has pursued a policy of low exchange rates with high interest rates. The hot money generated high interest, not investment. As the hot money left the country, they returned to the foreign currency at a low rate and left the country. Our country has always lost its policy of high interest and low exchange rates. “
‘WHAT HAPPENED IF THE RESERVATIONS WERE NOT USED?’
On March 2, Kavcıoğlu wrote an article titled “Why are there Central Bank reserves?” It would be helpful if the CBRT explained this problem. However, when there is no statement from CBRT, it is perceived as if the $ 130 billion from this radio has flown somewhere. CBRT reservations are an economic event. It is not political. Second, when analyzing foreign exchange reserves, the reserves of all the world’s central banks are grossly controlled. If reservations will not be used when needed, when will they be used? When Kovid-19 started, all world economies stopped in March 2020, became inoperative, and attempts were made to increase the exchange rate with speculative attacks, although demand fell. If the reserves were not used at those times, what would the USD / TL rate be? How much would inflation or interest rates go up? “he used the expressions.
THANKS FROM AĞBAL
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After his dismissal, Naci Ağbal tweeted and made the following sentences: “I would like to thank the president for all the functions he considered appropriate, including the presidency of the Central Bank. Starting today, I would like to express my gratitude for my dismissal. May my Lord give us the best. “
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