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Inflation beat economists’ expectations in November, reaching its highest level in 2020, with the effect of the pandemic.
According to data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute’s consumer price index in November of the previous year, it registered an increase of 14.03 percent over the same period. The monthly increase was 2.3 percent.
Core inflation was recorded at 13.26 percent annually in November. In October, this figure was 11.48 percent.
Food prices increased 21.08 percent compared to the same period last year.
The group with the highest annual increase in November was that of various goods and services with 29.42 percent. The annual increase in the transportation group was also recorded as 18.67 percent. The lowest annual increase was registered in the group of alcoholic beverages and tobacco with 0.67 percent. The other large groups where the increase was low compared to the same month of the previous year were clothing and footwear with 0.99 percent, communication with 5.19 percent and education with 7 percent, respectively.
The products whose prices increased the most were tomatoes with 66.7 percent, zucchini with 25.18 percent and cauliflower with 24.35 percent.
When evaluating the inflation figures from Bloomberg HT, Garanti BBVA’s Deputy Chief Economist Seda Güler Mert stated that inflation exceeded expectations due to the reflection of the exchange rate pass-through in November and rising food prices.
Economists’ expectations were at the 12.7 percent level
The median expectation of economists who participated in the Bloomberg HT inflation survey was that the consumer price index would increase 1.1 percent compared to the previous month and 12.7 percent compared to the same period. from the previous year. The institution that shared the highest expectations in the survey conducted by 21 institutions indicated that the monthly CPI increased by 2.5 percent in November; The institution that shared the lowest expectations expected an increase of 0.7 percent.
Annual inflation in Turkey had been in the single digits in September 2019. The annual inflation pandemic, which resulted in double digits in November 2019, was around 11-12 percent throughout 2020.
The peak of the year was also seen in producer prices
The highest level in 2020 was recorded in producer price inflation.
According to data released by the Turkish Institute of Statistics, the producer price index showed an increase of 23.11 percent compared to the same period a year earlier in November. The increase in the producer price index compared to the previous month was 4.08 percent.
Leading indicators also rose
The increase in data from the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce and TÜRK-İŞ, which are the main indicators in terms of inflation data, also continued to increase.
According to the November 2020 price indices of the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce, in Istanbul; Istanbul’s wage earning index, which is an indicator of retail price movements, was up 1.94 percent compared to the previous month. The annual increase in this index was 14.07 percent.
According to TÜRK-İŞ’s November Hunger and Poverty Line Research, annual food inflation in November was 19.68 percent. According to the research, food prices increased 1.39 percent in November compared to the previous month.
Year-end expectations of economists above 12 percent
Following the announcement of the November data, the inflation outlook for the end of the year was clarified.
In the latest Bloomberg HT inflation survey, the expectation is that inflation will reach 12.5 percent by the end of 2020. Sharing the lower expectation, inflation is 11.9 percent at the end of the year; The institution that shares the highest expectation predicted it would be 20.6 percent.
In November, the Survey of Expectations of the Central Bank of Turkey had presented a similar picture. According to the survey, the inflation expectation at the end of the year was 12.47 percent. In the previous survey, this expectation was at the 11.76 percent level.
In the latest inflation report announced by the CBRT, the bank’s inflation expectation for the end of 2020 was lowered from 8.9 percent to 12.1 percent. In the New Economy Program, the inflation expectation at the end of the year was 10.5 percent.
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