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Despite the “positive” environment in the markets after the change in the management of the economy, locals sell TL and buy hard currency.
According to data from the Central Bank (CBRT), residents’ foreign currency deposits, which were 225.8 billion dollars in the week of November 13, rose to 228.2 billion dollars in the week of 20 November, refreshing a record. The one-week increase was $ 2.4 billion.
In the two weeks after the change in the management of the economy, the increase in foreign currency deposits by residents exceeded $ 3.9 billion. Since the beginning of the year, the increase has reached $ 34.5 billion.
THE PURCHASE OF FOREIGN CURRENCY PREMISES IS INCREASING IN THE DRY
Experts point out that the problem of confidence in the economy and politics and the fact that the interest on deposits in TL remained below inflation for a long time was effective in the foreign currency rush, and that the Exchange rate and the price of gold experienced after the change in the management of the economy were seen as buying opportunities.
After breaking a record 8.57 on November 6, the exchange rate, which rose to 7.51 with interest hikes and other “normalization” steps, had risen to 8.04 two days ago, with the effect of currency purchases. of the premises.
BRSA data and information provided by bankers show that local currency purchases continued after November 20. Experts claim that locals see the exchange rate drop as a new buying opportunity, and that the trust issue needs to be solved and TL’s deposit rates need to rise significantly for the situation to change.
THE ENTRY OF FOREIGN HOT CURRENCY CONTINUES
While the purchase of foreign currency by locals continued, the inflow of foreign hot money continued from November 13 to 20. During this period, foreign 389.7 million shares, 182.7 million, 572.4 million in net inflow to Turkey through the purchase of bonds.
The money contributed by foreigners through the purchase of stocks and bonds was 928 million dollars in the week of November 6 to 13.
Foreigners made an income of approximately $ 4 billion in the week of November 6-13 through the TL currency swap. It states that foreigners continued to enter the swap channel during the week of November 13 to 20.
According to data from the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BRSA), the banks’ off-balance-sheet exchange position increased by USD 3.4 billion in the week of November 13 to 20, indicating that banks increased their swaps with the CBRT and with foreigners.
Foreigners sell currencies at the spot exchange rate and buy TL. They give the TL that they buy from Turkish banks with swap (currency swap-TL for a certain maturity) and receive foreign currency in return. It accrues TL interest based on the maturity of the swap transaction.
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CENTER RESERVE INCREASE
The CBRT’s gross reserve increased by $ 2.7 billion in the week of November 13-20 to $ 85.1 billion. The gross foreign exchange reserve increased by $ 3.4 billion to $ 43.7 billion, and the gross gold reserve to $ 41.4 billion, down from $ 0.6 billion.
The CBRT’s net international reserves increased to $ 18.45 billion on November 20, an increase of approximately $ 2 billion compared to the previous week. The CBRT’s net reserves fell to $ 16.43 billion last week, the lowest level since March 2004.
It is estimated that the increase in reserves of the center is mainly due to the increase of the swap, that is, the foreign exchange received from the banks in terms of TL.
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