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Huseyin KOYUNCUOĞLU
The markets started the new week very active with the hot agenda. Assets in Turkish liras are gaining value. The TL gained 6 percent against the dollar, reaching the 8.0021 level. Thus, in dollars / TL, September 13 2018’deki After an 8 percent decline, the largest rate of decline was experienced. With a similar outlook, Euro / TL also saw its lowest level of 9.5092 today. According to analysts; The expectation that economic and monetary policies will change plays a major role in the appreciation of the LT.
Yunus Kaya, Research Director at Alnus:
Potential for further currency decline
The sharp drop in exchange rates WORLDAlnus research manager Yunus Kaya stated that the exchange rate withdrawal may continue and said: “The reflection of the process of resignation in the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance to the markets was in the form of a strengthening of the Turkish lira. In the first statement by the governor of CBRT Ağbal today, a signal was given to the markets to increase interest rates. It can even be concluded that the rate hike may occur before November 19. There are prices as if there had been an increase in interest in the dollar exchange rate, which goes from 8.50 to 8.00. I expect the currency’s decline to continue in the coming days. The appointment of a person who will work in accordance with the central bank governor Ağbal as the Ministry of Finance and Finance will also support the drop in exchange rates. Now 8.50 will be a very strong resistance for the next few days. On the decline, 7.70 is our first support point. The fact that the demand for real currencies, which increased in November and December due to debts due in December, decreases in the first months of 2021 may also be an advantage for the next period. The need for the foreign exchange market will also decrease due to debt payments. This will reduce the real pressure on exchange rates.
Enver Erkan, Investment Economist at Tera:
The market trusts Ağbal
Tera investment economist Enver Erkan said CBRT’s new governor Ağbal is perceived positively. Erkan, WORLDIn the statement you made to; “There is an expectation that the change of CBRT president will have better repercussions in terms of communication and politics. Naci Ağbal’s previous experience in the finance ministry can be positively reflected. The expectation of a transition to more orthodox policies is increasing. It seems that it will be in the stage of evaluating the situation until November 19. “The market is confident in the new central bank governor that there will be better communication of monetary policy in the context of halting the depreciation of the lira.”
Rabobank: policy interest rate increase message
The overall view in the markets is that Naci Ağbal, who was appointed Governor of the Central Bank at the weekend, received a positive response to the message that was given to the markets today. YDelivering a message to the markets with a strong statement, CBRT Governor Naci Ağbal stated that the main goal is price stability, saying: “All policy tools will be used with determination. The current situation and expectations will be used. They will review until November 19. ” In the report prepared by Rabobank, it was stated that with the appointment of the new CBRT president, the value of TL has risen against the dollar today. Analyst Piotr Matys said: “It appears that the markets have decided to believe that the newly appointed former Finance Minister Naci Ağbal will directly increase the benchmark interest rate, not the interest rate broker in liquidity management.”
The president of MB Ağbal informed Erdoğan
On the other hand, according to the Reuters report; Naci Ağbal, who was appointed president of the CBRT, met with the general managers of public and private banks, non-governmental organizations, business circles and regulatory institutions one by one in Istanbul over the weekend, and then gave a briefing to the president Erdoğan last night. Two sources familiar with the matter claimed that Ağbal, after receiving the evaluations from various segments, transmitted them to President Erdoğan in a separate meeting, while Nurettin Canikli, AKP chairman in charge of economic affairs, and Servet Bayındır, member of the Presidential Board of Economic Policies. They claimed they were done for “technical support.”
Eyes on the ‘Albayrak’ process
With all these After yesterday shared the resignation of the Minister of Finance and Finance, Berat Albayrak, no official statement has yet been made. Whether President Erdogan will accept the resignation is a cause for concern. KThe claims that circulate in the nationalities are also in search of the markets. The complaints include the possibility of changes in the presidency and the cabinet.
The stock market is at the top of 9 months
BIST-100, which closed the premium at 7 percent last week, continues to rise into the new week. The index reached its 9-month peak with 1,226 points. With the effect of the message from CBRT chairman Ağbal, increases in the banking index exceeded 5 percent.
Central Bank Governor Ağbal: We will follow developments until November 19, all tools will be used
Statement from Albayrak when leaving his Instagram account
