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“TODAY’S EARTHQUAKE WAS BEYOND THE PLACE I EXPECTED IN 2045”
Professor Geophysical Engineer, who evaluated the magnitude 3.5 earthquake in the Sea of Marmara this morning. Dr. Övgün Ahmet Ercan, “These are warning earthquakes. In other words, a major earthquake means that a major earthquake will come immediately afterwards. It does not mean that a large earthquake will come immediately. Before the Marmara earthquakes, such pioneering earthquakes, the operation, time and depth of the fracture. Geophysical engineers provide very important information about the stress discharge that will also be discharged. We process each earthquake in great detail and obtain information from it. Earthquakes smaller than four are called earthquakes, which they are earthquakes. The biggest ones are called earthquakes. The equivalent of the earthquake occurring today is one of the Istanbul branch and Tekirdağ branch earthquakes that you expected in 2045. It was roughly above the explosion site you expected in 2045 Therefore, the outer focal position is the outer focus of the earthquake that will take place in 2045. It coincides with the location. action, “he said.
“THE EARTHQUAKE GROUP IS INTENSIVE AROUND THE BÜYÜKÇEKMECE”
Regarding the earthquakes in Marmara, especially around Büyükçekmece, Ercan said: “The crust of northern Marmara is not a single piece. Northern Marmara consists of three parts. One of them is the Kocaeli part and the other is the Thracian part. The place where the Kocaeli part ends is Büyükçekmece. West of Büyükçekmece. Now, the resistance of the crust under Istanbul against breaking is very high, that is, the crust is not crisp, and due to to its very thick granite layer and the proximity of the magma to the surface up to two kilometers, has increased its resistance to fracture. This delays the occurrence of the Istanbul earthquake, now to defeat it it must have accumulated a power of six billion cigatons so that it can break, now the break does not occur because it does not accumulate that energy., Kumbağ, Şarköy, Mürefte, Hoşköy and from there to Gelibolu “In the section, there are many cracks because they are of medium brittleness, so he grouped it No more earthquakes occur there. “
“WE EXPECT AN EARTHQUAKE BETWEEN 2040 AND 2050”
Stating that he expects the Istanbul earthquake after 25 years and that urban transformation should be completed within this period, Ahmet Ercan,
“You have to load something to be able to break it. Now every year there is this loading pressure from the east in the crust off Istanbul. There is about 0.14 centimeter of loading and deformation here. And we will see a stress of about four and a half The time it will take, 7 For an earthquake of 2/7 tenths, it is approximately 32 years, 32 years after the earthquake of 99, which corresponds to 2031. With a few years of error, however, this will not be a linear agglomeration. Therefore, some years of agglomeration are fast, some years never happen.In such a situation, when we use the 2,300-year database, Marmara has seen 16 earthquakes greater than 9 of destructive power.
Enter the year of your training. And it shows a very even distribution. Therefore, the year of the earthquake is 2045 plus minus five years. So we expect earthquakes between 2040 and 2050. In other words, it has now emerged that the saying that there will be an earthquake every moment has not been true for 21 years. Therefore, we expect the earthquake in twenty-five years, but we need to use this 25-year interval very efficiently for urban transformation. In other words, we need to use it well to make solid structures on land, ”he said.
“70 PERCENT OF THE DESTRUCTIONS WILL BE IN ISTANBUL EUROPE AND 30 PERCENT IN ISTANBUL ANATOLIAN”
Ercan gave the following answer to the question of which places in Istanbul will be most affected when the expected earthquake occurs:
“Now, the magnitude of the earthquake that can occur in Istanbul will be between 5 of 6 and 7 of 6 tenths. The destructiveness of this will be a little more than Izmir. Its fatality is more than Izmir. Because Izmir has 1,750 people per square kilometer in Istanbul. 2,586 people fall. Transportation was very easy, but transportation will not be so easy in Istanbul. This earthquake will be in front of Küçükçekmece-Avcılar. So the place that will affect the most is again, yes, especially Avcılar It would be a surprise to me if the buildings survived. The surroundings of Yakuplu, the Büyükçekmece slip areas, the structures around the giant slide area, Mimarsinan, Kumburgaz, Bağcılar, the Canarian part of Küçükçekmece and Cumhuriyet Mahallesi, Sefaköy, Menekşe, Yeşkilyöy, especially Yeşkırköy. Parts, İncirli, Güneşli, Zeytinburnu, Topkapı Suriçi, especially Fatih district, shores of the Golden Horn, Kağıthane, Eyüp. Uzla will greatly affect the surroundings dedores. The affection will be less on the islands. The islands are pretty solid. 70% of the demolitions will take place in European Istanbul and 30% in Anatolian Istanbul. “
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