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Estimating Trump’s victory in 2016 for the presidential elections to be held tomorrow in the United States, the electoral company called Trafalgar Group announced that it is once again in the lead in important states.
Hours before the start of America’s most critical presidential elections, eyes turned to the polls and the reliability of these polls.
In 2016, while all polling companies firmly envisioned the victory of then-Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, the Trafalgar Group, who said Trump will win and predicted, released a new poll for the 2020 election.
The poll emphasized that Trump is leading the way in critical states, as opposed to general polls, and said he has a chance of winning the election.
According to the Trafalgar poll, Trump appears to be 2.7 points ahead in Florida, 0.8 points in Pennsylvania, 2.5 points in Michigan, 2.1 points in North Carolina and 2.5 points in Arizona.
Trafalgar, for his part, claimed that Biden appeared ahead of Trump, with 1.3 points in Wisconsin, the other two major states, and 3.2 points in Minnesota.
BEFORE BIDDING ON AVERAGE SURVEYS
Democrat Joe Biden is 6.5 points ahead of Republican Trump in national polls on Real Clear Politics, an analytics site that takes the average of all polls conducted in the US.
Considering the critical states, Biden’s superiority is notable in every state except North Carolina. In North Carolina, Trump is said to be 0.6 points ahead of his rival Biden.
Biden is one point ahead in Florida and 4.2 points in Pennsylvania, one of the most critical states. Of the other critical states, Michigan has a 5.1 point lead, Wisconsin has 6.6 and Arizona has a 1 point lead.
THE IMPORTANCE OF SWING STATES
In US presidential elections, voters primarily vote for the delegates of the party they support. In this system, called “Board of Delegates”, a total of 538 delegates are assigned to each state with different weights. The candidate who reaches one more than half this number, that is, 270 delegates, has the right to be president.
One of the striking features of the American political system, where the balance between states is observed, is that the person with the most delegates, not the most votes in total, is the president.
In this system, the fate of elections in the United States is determined by so-called “swing” states because they go back and forth between Republicans and Democrats.
Pennsylvania and Florida stand out as the top two states in the 2020 election in 6 swing states, totaling 101 out of the total number of 270 delegates to run for president.
