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Claiming that the earthquakes in the North Aegean took place at the western end of the northern Anatolian fault, DAUM director and faculty member of the Department of Geological Engineering, Prof. Dr. Sözbilir warned of two devastating earthquakes that could affect Tekirdağ and Balıkesir, drawing attention to the prolonged silence on the Ganos fault.
Finally, he claimed that the Ganos fault, which erupted in 1912, has not produced large-scale destructive earthquakes since then. Sözbilir noted that the elapsed time exceeded 100 years. Explaining that a similar silence arose between Edremit and Gönen, Prof. Dr. Sözbilir recalled that the last earthquake in that region took place in 1944 and drew attention to the seismic gap that would affect the Balıkesir neighborhood.
He said: “The northern Anatolian fault forks showing a shape like a horse’s tail. It is observed that there is seismic silence, especially in the land parts of Tekirdag, in the parts of the Ganos fault. centimeters in the horizontal direction, so a stress of approximately 2 meters has accumulated in this region, indicating the expectation of an earthquake of approximately 7 magnitude.
There is a similar seismic silence in the region between Edremit and Gönen. The last earthquake occurred in 1944. The earthquake occurred in the western part of the fault. The eastern part is not broken yet. That is why this place is also a seismic void. When we go west and east, we see that many parts of the northern Anatolian fault are broken. There are very few parts left that will not break. Approximately 100 kilometers in the Sea of Marmara, where the Ganos segment is located, it is not broken. Similarly, the Yedisu segment is the parts that are evaluated in the seismic gap class. “
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‘THE PLAN MUST BE COMMISSIONED QUICKLY’
Explaining that segments with silence can affect Tekirdağ, the region between Edremit and Gönen, specifically Balıkesir, Prof. Dr. Sözbilir said that there are many villages and district settlements in the region. Explaining that certain assessments must be made on faults that are expected to break in the near future within the scope of the ‘fault law’, Sözbilir said:
“These areas must be closed to construction and the existing construction must be earthquake resistant. The 1912 earthquake was 7.3 magnitude. Then there was an earthquake of about 6.8 magnitude in 1944. Since these are considered in the class of destructive earthquakes, it is necessary to take precautions here. There is a “Disaster Risk Reduction Plan. This plan must be put into action quickly.”
BUILDING STOCK MUST BE CHECKED
Noting that the earthquakes that occurred in the last 500 kilometers west of the North Anatolian fault developed in a way that triggered each other, DAUM Director Prof. Dr. Hasan Sözbilir stated that the stress on the segments Fault in the nature of a blocked fault in the Sea of Marmara is increasing day by day. Sözbilir said that it is vital to complete the National Earthquake Strategy and Action Plan (UDSEP-2023) and the ‘Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction Plans (IRAP), and to implement practices to reduce risks from possible destructive earthquakes. Saying: “First, the faults in the provinces with seismic breaches should be studied. The fault zones should be unearthed and recorded on the zoning maps.” The buildings in question should be completed and upgraded within the scope of urban transformation. “
