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EXPERT PREDICTIONS ABOUT THE MARMARA EARTHQUAKE
Prof. Dr. Süleyman Pampal
“Most of our earthquakes are very shallow earthquakes. So it is not a surprise. There was an earthquake close to this magnitude in this region recently. If it were a region near Tekirdağ, it would not scare us so much.”
Prof. Dr. Okan hairless:
“There was a 5.4 earthquake in the similar region in recent months. It seems close. This is a major earthquake. We have to wait and watch for a while to see if it will come or not … It is not possible to say that an earthquake will occur in this period. However, there are some possibilities. We can talk about it. There was a 65 percent chance that it would occur within 30 years of 1999. Now it is possible that it will occur in 10 years. The North Amadolu fault has many branches in the Sea of Marmara. This magnitude 4 earthquake is slightly south of the main branch. . “
Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy:
“We have a fault line that broke in 1912, off the coast of Ereğli, there is a fault line that came later from the Silivri well and created 5.7 and 4.7 earthquakes last year. It was on the fault line towards Silivri line A scale 4 earthquake can cause such earthquakes because an area of about 3-4 square kilometers moves a few centimeters, but this system is scattered rather than in a single fault.
There is no data to affect the thesis that this will affect the main failure. It is one of hundreds of earthquakes since 1912. The Kumburgaz fault, which is dangerous for us, does not have a movement above what we call 40 kilometers. If this were on the Kumburgaz fault, it would be considered risky for the people of Istanbul. However, a fault located at Tekirdağ Slivri off the coast of Ereğli, this fault is not a stress-laden fault, but a fault that continually releases its energy. Since this fault is constantly moving, it can create continuous earthquakes of magnitude 4 “.
