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21 closed due to the outbreak in March hairdressers, barbers and shopping malls of social life began to pass through Turkey gradually reopened on May 11. According to the prepared 4-step plan, their goal is to start a controlled social life in many areas of life until September and fully normalize in early January 2021, when the effect of the virus is expected to be restored. Of course, unless there is an increase in the number of cases. Experts stress that the most important factor in the beginning of controlled social life is that the virus infection rate, which has increased to 5 in the world, has fallen below 1. However, it also repeats the warnings of ” Let’s not take precaution. ” These are the evaluations made by the members of the Scientific Committee and other experts at Hürriyet:
WE ARE A DYNAMIC PROCESS, INCREASE BACK
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Member of the scientific committee Dr. Ates Kara:
It is not possible to calculate the infection rate accurately. The reason is that this rate can be calculated by monitoring how many people get sick when a new microorganism (virus or bacteria) enters a society that has never found that microbe before. In our country, staying at home, following the distance rule, wearing a mask and other measures reduced the transmission rate. I can tell you now that this figure falls below 1 in Turkey. Because the number of cases is constantly decreasing. If it were greater than 1, the number of newly diagnosed cases would increase and the spread would continue. When the disease first appeared, considering how many people were infected, this rate was up to 5 in the world. For example, we can say that it is reduced to 3 with the closing of schools and it can be reduced to 2 with the stay of adults, children and youth in the home. The high capacity of beds in hospitals allowed many of our provinces to isolate themselves in the hospital immediately. This was very effective in stopping the spread of the virus. While other countries took the disease under control in 8-16 weeks, we drew a plateau in the 5th week, and the decline began in 7 weeks. This led to the transition to a controlled standardization process. But we are in a dynamic process, we see that there is a fluctuation in transmission rates, then we go backwards. Or if all goes well, more steps are taken.
CONTROLLED STANDARDIZATION TO FIND THE SOURCE
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President of the Infectious Diseases Association Dr. Mehmet Ceyhan:
The transmission speed is 1.1, which means that the number of cases begins to increase slightly. This is happening now in Germany. With a small increase, they began to drift away from normal life. In us, when the ratio started to drop below 1, controlled normalization steps started to be taken. This situation is evaluated for 3 days. It takes the average of 3 days. It is compared to the average of other 3-day blocks. If there is a slight increase in us, we should analyze the situation, investigate and take new measures according to the result. Currently, shopping malls are beginning to open, little by little we are over 65 years old. Young people will also go out. If there is an increase, we will see it. We will find out where this originated. If shopping malls are the problem, action will be taken accordingly. For example, the transmission rate in South Korea was almost zero. They took standardization measures, opened the bars. They then observed that one person in the bar became infected with 17 people. Precautions were taken immediately. That is why not all measures are removed at once. Controlled normalization is essential to discover where the problem is caused. So what is being done now is correct. If all goes well, we will expand our life in a few months and begin to live the life we call the new masked, distant and new normal. Every time the virus threat is left around the world, we will continue our normal lives.
WE WILL UNDERSTAND FILTRATION
Member of the scientific committee Dr. Tevfik Özlü:
If the infection rate falls below 1, the epidemic is decreasing. In fact, the figure is not that important. It is very important that transmission in society has decreased compared to the past. While loosening, it is necessary to take measures that do not increase the risk of transmission. We will return to social life as much as possible, but we will also implement the measures strictly. What are these measurements? Measures such as the use of masks, hygiene, ventilation and social isolation. If the transmission rate in controlled social life increases, it is understood where it originates with the presentations (such as shopping centers or hairdressers) and the necessary measures are taken.
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DO NOT LEAVE THE MEASURE
Member of the scientific committee Dr. Ilhami Celik:
If the rate falls below 1, it means that there is still contamination, but it means that the contamination has decreased significantly compared to the past. This is perceived as a good step towards the transition to normalization. It was the same with us. For this reason, we must continue our lives obeying the measures, provided we do not abandon caution.
